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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
Gassco announced a number of unplanned outages are affecting Norwegian flows today, with a reduction in flows to the UK providing bullish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts and bullish sentiment to futures. - 21/02/2025
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has warned that Hamas will 'pay' for not returning a hostage's body, a violation that threatens to derail the fragile ceasefire and hinder further negotiations, triggering market uncertainty. - 21/02/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, with bullish sentiment stemming from geopolitics as the US refuses to co-sign a UN motion backing Ukraine and Middle Eastern concerns rise. - 21/02/2025
The UK has secured another LNG cargo for Feb-25, bringing the total up to 29. This is helping to limit upside along the curve on easing supply concerns and an improved ability for the UK to inject into storage. - 21/02/2025
Ofgem proposes tariffs with low or no standing charges to provide flexibility to consumers. This could offer bearish signals to UK gas futures as lower standing charges may reducing overall consumption and wholesale demand. - 21/02/2025
Venture Global's Plaquemine's facility has been awarded permission to increase export capacity, increasing shipment availability by 13%. This is offering bearish signals to UK gas futures on improving supply prospects. - 20/02/2025
The UK has secured three additional LNG cargoes for Feb-25, bringing the total to 28. This represents a 105% increase in total volumes compared to Feb-24, providing bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts. - 20/02/2025
UK gas futures are neutral bearish this morning, mostly ignoring rising US-Russia peace talk tensions. Improved weather fundamentals and prospects of flexible EU gas storage targets continue to weigh on the market. - 20/02/2025
Warmer temperatures and firm wind generation are reducing gas-for-power and heating demand. Additionally, downside seen in the UK carbon benchmark is also contributing to bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices. - 20/02/2025
Russia's continued mass drone attacks on Ukraine, targeting gas infrastructure for the second consecutive night on Wednesday, have raised supply concerns for the region, limiting further downside along the curve. - 20/02/2025
A draft EU document is set to include a gas storage regulation extension for EU countries and promote more coordinated and flexible gas storage filling targets to ensure energy security and market stability. - 19/02/2025
Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass LNG will begin commercial operations in April, boosting global supply through long-term contract deliveries but potentially tightening the spot market sending mixed signals along the curve. - 19/02/2025
Cornwall Insight forecasts a 5% energy price cap rise in April-25 (up from 3%) due to high wholesale costs, which may curb domestic demand, offering bearish pressure to UK futures amid reduced overall energy consumption. - 19/02/2025
UK gas futures are neutral this morning, with some positive sentiment surrounding US-Russia peace talks easing. Trump's push for a quick deal and European concerns add uncertainty to Ukraine's role and security. - 19/02/2025
Rising temperatures are expected to cut UK Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand by 56 mcm/d, with wind output also increasing, applying bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts due to a looser demand balance - 19/02/2025
Favourable weather fundamentals, with above seasonal normal wind generation and rising temperatures, into tomorrow are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts on reduced gas-for-power and heating demand. - 18/02/2025
Turkey plans to renegotiate two major gas contracts with Russia by the end of the year, which could enhance its regional energy role and position it as a key gas transit hub to Europe, offering bearish signals to UK gas futures. - 18/02/2025
The Trump administration has approved it’s first LNG export license for Commonwealth LNG, after lifting Biden's approval pause, allowing exports to non-free trade agreement countries including Europe and Asia. - 18/02/2025
UK gas futures are largely neutral-bearish this morning, with ongoing US-Russia peace talks continuing to provide bearish sentiment along the curve. Improving weather forecasts are also adding to the downside. - 18/02/2025
Northeast Asian buying remains muted despite a cold-snap in the region due to high storage levels, while high prices deter South Asian tenders. This provides bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts on easing supply competition. - 18/02/2025
Asian LNG prices have surged to a one-year high amid forecasts of colder weather in the region, limiting downside along the curve on increasing competition amid persistent European storage concerns. - 17/02/2025
The UK has secured an additional 4 LNG cargoes for Feb-25 and 3 for Mar-25, bringing the totals to 25 and 4, respectively. February-25 imports are up 83% year-on-year, providing bearish pressure to near-curve contracts. - 17/02/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are trading down this morning on increased wind generation into tomorrow reducing gas-for-power demand. Temperatures are also recovering but still below seasonal norms. - 17/02/2025
US officials, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have arrived in Saudi Arabia for high-level peace talks with Russia. Market sentiment surrounding the talks is providing bearish signals for UK gas futures. - 17/02/2025
The Summer-25 premium over Winter-25 has faded, reflecting a shift in market sentiment. This decline has been driven by growing support for relaxing EU gas storage targets, which in turn suggests easing buying pressure - 17/02/2025
Wind and temperature forecasts for Feb- and Mar-25 have worsened but still remain improved from where we started the week, limiting the bullish impact coming from the revision. - 14/02/2025
UK gas futures are trading down in morning trading after posting significant declines two days in a row amid improved weather forecasts, better Ukrainian peace prospects and a sell off by speculators. - 14/02/2025
The recent pullback in markets has seen W-25 return to trading at a premium over S-25, encouraging storage injections this summer and potentially removing any need for the German storage subsidy. - 14/02/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing down in morning trading, with wind and nuclear output rising over the weekend, whilst heating demand may also fall on warmer temperatures. - 14/02/2025
An alternative to Trump's plan for Gaza being put forward by Arab states could shift sentiment in the region and provide bearish signals on better signs of regional stability. - 14/02/2025
Germany's proposed gas subsidy auctions have failed to attract bids as the government aims to conserve funds before the general election, helping to narrow the premium between Summer-25 and Winter-25. - 13/02/2025
Talks of the EU relaxing gas storage targets have offered bearish signals along the curve on easing buying pressure. However, lifting the targets risks weaker European storage for W-25. - 13/02/2025
UK gas futures continue to fall sharply, driven partly by improved wind and temperature forecasts for late February into March, triggering speculative selling and adding to the downside. - 13/02/2025
The UK has secured one additional LNG cargo for Feb-25, bringing the total to 20. Combined with improved weather forecasts, this is adding bearish pressure to near-curve contracts on increased storage injection prospects. - 13/02/2025
Trump's talks with Putin and Zelenskiy signal a shift in the US approach to the war in Ukraine, suggesting a potential push for peace in the region. This has added further bearish pressure to UK gas futures. - 13/02/2025
UK gas futures pulled back yesterday, with the S-25 contract bouncing off the sentimental resistance level of 140 p/th. Prices are moving down again this morning, in part spurred by improved weather forecasts for Feb-25. - 12/02/2025
Europe may struggle to meet it's 90% storage target by November, with a figure between 70-75% more likely. This is limiting downside along the curve due to rising winter supply risks and strong summer injection demand. - 12/02/2025
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire remains tentative, with concerns it may end on Saturday, while Trump's stance is adding to market nervousness and supporting near-curve gas contracts amid broader geopolitical risks. - 12/02/2025
Turkey has signed a gas deal with Turkmenistan that begins in Mar-25 to receive up to 2bcm a year of gas. This could potentially help diversify Europe's energy sources and alleviate some concerns from loss of Russian flows. - 12/02/2025
A further drop in wind output and temperatures is expected to increase consumption by 25mcm/d into tomorrow, pushing up day-ahead gas contracts on increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 12/02/2025
At least six Asian countries are looking to increase their US LNG imports to reduce trade deficits with the US and avoid tariffs. This could heighten competition for supplies, though it could also free up alternative suppliers. - 11/02/2025
The VikingLink interconnector is experiencing an unplanned outage due to a system failure. Combined with unseasonably low wind output, this is supporting prompt baseload contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. - 11/02/2025
The UK is scheduled to receive an additional 2 LNG cargoes for Feb-25 bringing the total to 19, a 46% year-on-year increase, with rare shipments from Australia and Oman heading to Europe amid strong demand. - 11/02/2025
UK gas futures are largely neutral-bearish, retracing some recent gains. However, current weather fundamentals, storage concerns, market tightness, and geopolitical factors have limited further downside. - 11/02/2025
The La Niña weather pattern could potentially end between April and June, bringing warmer and windier conditions. Until then, weather is likely to remain supportive, with temperatures for Feb-25 revised down again. - 11/02/2025
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Feb-25 bringing the total to 17, with 1 cargo secured for Mar-25. This is limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to attract cargoes. - 10/02/2025
Last week, Ukraine sharply increased gas imports amid worryingly low storage levels and ongoing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. This is providing bullish pressure along the curve due to a tighter supply balance. - 10/02/2025
Europe's front-month LNG prices have hit a two-month high on colder weather forecasts and declining storage levels, compounded by growing Chinese LNG competition in Asia amid the US tariff dispute. - 10/02/2025
UK gas futures continue to rally to the upside, as colder Feb- and Mar-25 forecasts heighten storage concerns. Rigid EU storage targets may further drive seasonal demand, disrupt markets, and sustain high energy prices. - 10/02/2025
Prompt energy contracts are receiving support from unfavourable weather fundamentals, which are driving up gas-for-power and heating demand, along with reduced Norwegian flows and gains in the UK carbon benchmark. - 10/02/2025
Egypt is set to remain a net LNG importer, securing 60 cargoes but possibly needing additional volumes. This further tightens global LNG supply and boosts competition with Europe, providing bullish signals along the curve. - 07/02/2025
The ElecLink interconnector has returned from an unplanned five-month outage, and with BritNed also back online, improving import prospects, which are limiting upside for prompt baseload contracts. - 07/02/2025
Gazprom has resumed gas supplies to Slovakia’s SPP in February via the Turkstream, with volumes expected to double in April, potentially stabilising supplies in the region, offering some bearish sentiment to prices. - 07/02/2025
Prompt energy contracts are receiving support from colder temperatures forecast throughout next week, increasing household heating demand. Norwegian flows have also declined, further tightening the supply balance. - 07/02/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, supported by bullish signals from UK and European storage conditions, global market tightness, and geopolitical factors, which continue to weigh on prices. - 07/02/2025
Europe is estimated to need 230 additional LNG cargoes this summer, a 20% year-on-year increase, to replenish depleted storage, adding bullish pressure along the curve due to heightened buying demand. - 06/02/2025
Rising LNG tanker supply, US cargo diversions, and Chinese tariffs are boosting European LNG availability. The lower shipping costs and greater availability are limiting upside to near-curve energy contracts. - 06/02/2025
UK gas futures continue to rally to the upside this morning, with Trump's Middle Eastern policies provoking some concerns of further instability in the region and compounding ongoing upside from storage concerns. - 06/02/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are trading down this morning, with an uptick in wind generation into tomorrow reducing gas-for-power demand. Gains in the UK carbon benchmark have limited further downside. - 06/02/2025
Supply and demand outlook for the next two weeks remains tight, with colder weather next week raising demand expectations, whilst low mid-range storage levels limit withdrawals, offering support to prompt gas contracts. - 06/02/2025
Norwegian flows to the UK have risen by 10mcm/d, leaving the system oversupplied. However, projected storage injections and colder temperatures driving up LDZ demand have limited any downside. - 05/02/2025
Germany and Italy seek to adjust storage targets, citing price concerns. While delayed injections could ease near-curve and front-season prices, insufficient storage could increase winter supply risks. - 05/02/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, after pulling back slightly in yesterdays trading, with ongoing storage concerns, exacerbated by near-term weather fundamentals, and geopolitics continuing to provide support. - 05/02/2025
A further drop in wind generation, along with a 5-day extension of the 595MW Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor outage, is providing bullish pressure to prompt baseload contracts due to increased gas-fired generation demand. - 05/02/2025
In light of recent US political events, and Trump's announcement of a US takeover of Gaza, is likely to reignite geopolitical concerns causing market uncertainty and fuelling risk along the curve. - 05/02/2025
Wind output and temperatures are both declining below seasonal levels into tomorrow, which is providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. - 04/02/2025
The UK is set to receive another LNG cargo for Feb-25, bringing the total to 16. This is adding bearish pressure to near-curve contracts as the UK and Europe remain a premium destinations for cargoes. - 04/02/2025
A forecast revision shows slightly warmer temperatures and improving wind output from mid-February, providing bearish signals along the curve, though near-term weather fundamentals remain supportive to prompt contracts. - 04/02/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bearish this morning, retracing some recent gains, partly due to easing supply concerns as global LNG output remains elevated and demand in Asia remains weak. - 04/02/2025
The UK gas system opened up undersupplied amid reduced Norwegian flows and mid-range storage levels too low to comfortably withdraw major amounts, tightening supply and supporting day-ahead gas contracts. - 04/02/2025
Norway's proposed fixed retail power price and potential export limits are providing bullish signals for baseload front seasonal contracts, driven by concerns over reduced UK power import prospects and wholesale market volatility. - 03/02/2025
The UK has secured an additional 5 LNG cargoes for Feb-25, bringing the total to 15 and up 15% compared to Feb-24. This is limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts on easing supply concerns. - 03/02/2025
The European Commission have decided to let the energy crisis price cap expire. Though challenges remain as markets adjust to the new normal, this signals the European Commission think the worst of the energy crisis has passed. - 03/02/2025
An uptick in wind generation and temperatures to above seasonal levels into tomorrow is providing bearish signals to day-ahead energy contracts on reduced gas-for-power and heating demand. - 03/02/2025
Wind and temperature forecasts for Feb-25 have been forecast down again, lending support to UK gas futures on concerns of further storage depletion and greater tightness as we head into the summer. - 03/02/2025
Updated temperature and wind forecasts are showing higher temperatures and wind output that the previous, but forecasts are still mostly below seasonal norms through to the 10-Feb, maintaining support to UK gas futures. - 31/01/2025
UK gas futures are continuing to move to the upside this morning. There hasn't been any individual news story driving the market, but rather a deepening of bullish sentiment as concerns over storage and supply remain. - 31/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up in morning trading, reaching new six-month highs. The bullish direction of the contract could be maintained as we await information around the UK and EU carbon market linkage. - 31/01/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is moving to the downside this morning as wind output recovers over the weekend. This is offsetting any bullish pressure from Heysham 1-1 (580MW) going offline for planned maintenance. - 31/01/2025
Lower temperatures and reduced Norwegian flows are lending support to the prompt gas contract this morning, though these dynamics are also contributing bullish sentiment along the curve as well. - 31/01/2025
UK energy futures are continuing yesterday's bullish trajectory this morning. A strong revision down for temperatures into Feb-25, as well as concerns over European gas storage and weak wind output are the main drivers. - 30/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is neutral-bullish after rallying by around 20% since the start of the week. In combination with weak wind output concerns, this is providing bullish signals to UK baseload futures. - 30/01/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is pointing strongly up this morning as weaker wind output supports gas-fired generation, whilst unseasonable temperatures and gas market tightness maintain high gas-fired premiums. - 30/01/2025
Wind output has been revised down into the middle of Feb-25 for the UK and NWE, adding to concerns from a similar revision to temperatures and highlighting the ongoing risk from the La Nina weather phenomenon. - 30/01/2025
The UK is set to receive its final LNG cargo for Jan-25 tomorrow, bringing the total to 21, and has secured 10 cargoes for Feb-25 delivery. Despite this, tightness in European gas markets is limiting any downside. - 30/01/2025
UK carbon and baseload futures are making gains again this morning after a strong rally to carbon yesterday on news that the UK government is planning to link the UK scheme with the more expensive EU scheme. - 29/01/2025
UK gas futures are pointing up this morning as concerns over tightness in LNG markets and significant depletion to European storage offset any downside from improved prospects for Ukrainian gas transit. - 29/01/2025
Day-ahead contracts are bullish this morning on falling wind and temperatures into tomorrow. Prompt contracts could remain supported into next week as weather has been forecast slightly colder and less windy. - 29/01/2025
An unplanned outage has been announced at Norway's Asgard gas field impacting 10 mcm/d of capacity, lending support to UK gas futures. Bullish pressure is somewhat limited by the small size of the outage. - 29/01/2025
The EU have announced they will not attempt a full ban of Russian LNG in their most recent sanctions package. Any bearish signals are being mitigated by the potential impact of US sanctions and storage concerns. - 29/01/2025
UK gas futures declined yesterday as the EU continued gas talks with Ukraine, whilst Ukraine mentioned a potential deal with Azerbaijan. Markets are reversing the trend this morning as lower prices increase buying pressure. - 28/01/2025
The most recent weather forecasts are providing some bearish signals this morning, with temperatures and wind slightly improved for the front two weeks. However, the market response has so far been minimal. - 28/01/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is pointing up this morning on declining temperatures and a drop in Norwegian gas flows into tomorrow. Prompt baseload is bearish, driven by high wind output and stable interconnector flows. - 28/01/2025
The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is holding for the time being, but signs of breakdown are already being shown as Israel seeks to extend its troop withdrawal time and Israeli ministers threaten to leave the coalition. - 28/01/2025
UK carbon has rallied sharply this morning on the back of news that the UK government is eyeing a link to the EU scheme, supporting UK baseload. EU carbon was trading over £33 higher than the UK equivalent yesterday. - 28/01/2025
UK gas futures are pointing down in morning trading on news that Ukraine is prepared to transit Azeri natural gas to Europe. However, there remains questions about Azerbaijan's ability to increase exports, limiting downside. - 27/01/2025
The UK has secured 3 additional LNG cargoes for February 2025, bringing the total to 6. January imports have hit a one-year high, as the UK remains an attractive destination for cargoes, and a continuation of this may limit upside. - 27/01/2025
JERA, Japan's leading LNG buyer, aims to increase its LNG purchases from the US to diversify its supply and address rising demand. This could increased supply competition as Europe increasingly looks to the US for supplies. - 27/01/2025
Norwegian flows to the UK are up 7mcm/d and a number of facility outages are due to end tomorrow, offering downside to day-ahead gas contracts on signs of sufficient pipeline supply and offsetting bullish signals from lower wind. - 27/01/2025
UK near-curve and front season contracts have begun to retrace from last weeks highs, however weather fundamentals into February and geopolitics surrounding Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine are limiting further downside. - 27/01/2025
Potential sanctions on Russian LNG exports by US President Trump could disrupt European energy supply, offering bullish signals along the curve on increased uncertainty in the market. - 24/01/2025
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