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A further decline in wind generation (to below 1GW) tomorrow, coupled with constrained UK nuclear output is providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. - 21/01/2025
The UK has secured 2 LNG cargoes for Feb-25 delivery, limiting upside to near-curve energy contracts as the UK continues to attract cargoes and enhances its ability to reinject into storage amid weak Asian demand. - 21/01/2025
Day-ahead gas contracts have risen to their highest levels since mid-October 2023 fuelled by unfavourable weather fundamentals and an undersupplied system indicating a tighter supply-demand balance. - 21/01/2025
UK gas futures rose in yesterday afternoon's trading and are continuing with their bullish trajectory, supported by IEA's suggestion of tight gas markets through 2025 and Trump's early policy decisions raising market uncertainty. - 21/01/2025
Norway's Hammerfest LNG has returned from an unplanned outage, but downside to energy futures is being limited by concerns of a storm hitting Louisiana and potentially restricting US LNG output. - 21/01/2025
Turkey has confirmed last week's attack on the Turkstream pipeline by Ukraine, despite Ukraine dismissing it as Russian propaganda. This is likely to offer support to prices along the curve amid heightened pipeline risk. - 20/01/2025
Donald Trump will be sworn in as US President today and his early policies such as pushing to end the Russia-Ukraine war, tariffs on China, and a potential EU trade war could have significant repercussions along the curve. - 20/01/2025
Weather fundamentals are offering support to day-ahead baseload contracts, with low wind generation and colder temperatures increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 20/01/2025
Norwegian flows to the UK have increased as Visund, Njord, and Troll return from maintenance limiting upside to day-ahead gas contracts from Hammerfest LNG remaining offline and Gullfaks maintenance extension. - 20/01/2025
At least six US LNG cargoes have been diverted from Asia to Europe, amid weaker Asian demand and higher European prices, providing bearish pressure to near-curve contracts as Europe continues to attract cargoes. - 20/01/2025
Downside from the Gaza ceasefire is being limited by the Yemeni Houthi's stating that if Israeli attacks in Gaza continue in the run up to the ceasefire, which has so far been the case, their own attacks will. - 17/01/2025
A sharp decline in wind output over the weekend is providing strong bullish signals to day-ahead UK baseload. Temperatures are flat into Monday after a slight drop over the weekend, limiting upside to prompt gas. - 17/01/2025
Yesterday's revisions to weather forecasts suggest warmer and windier conditions for the remainder of Jan- and Feb-25 contributed to the bearish direction to near-curve and seasonal gas futures in yesterday's trading. Markets are sideways this morning. - 17/01/2025
The UK has secured it's first cargo for Feb-25 delivery, continuing to add to the positive LNG supply picture for the UK and wider Europe. This contributed to the price drop in yesterday's trading. - 17/01/2025
The impact of the increased US sanctions package on Russia is being tested by a Russian cargo sitting off the coast of Spain. The potential reduction in Russian LNG imports is providing some support to UK gas futures. - 17/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing down in morning trading on improved wind output and marginally warmer temperatures into tomorrow. An unplanned outage at Heysham 2-8 (615MW) is limiting the downside. - 16/01/2025
Near curve gas contracts are moving to the downside in morning trading, with lessening geopolitical risk in the Middle East as a ceasefire arrangement is reached between Hamas and Israel. - 16/01/2025
Yesterday saw temperatures for the next week revised slightly down, though any bullish pressure from increased storage concerns has been mitigated by lessened geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. - 16/01/2025
The UK has secured a 19th LNG cargo for Jan-25, a 73% increase on Jan-24, as weak demand in Asia sees purchasers in the east redirect cargoes to Europe. This is helping to offset some concerns of weak storage. - 16/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is bearish this morning. It started the week at £35/tCO2e but has been declining on weak demand, breaking lower than the previous auction value. - 16/01/2025
Colder temperature forecasts for late Jan-25 on Monday afternoon supported the price rally, but a revision yesterday afternoon showing milder temperatures than Monday's forecast and contributed to a drop in gas futures. - 15/01/2025
UK energy futures are pointing up in morning trading after a pullback yesterday afternoon. Weakened storage limits downside and leaves Europe more exposed to supply concerns. - 15/01/2025
Norway's Gassco have announced an unplanned outage at the Njord gas field, starting today and finishing tomorrow, impacting 5.3mcm/d of flows. This is providing some support to UK gas futures on risk to further outages. - 15/01/2025
Despite the cold weather impacting the US, particularly its Freeport LNG facility, the UK has secured a 18th cargo for Jan-25 delivery. This marks a 64% increase on Jan-24 levels and limits upside to UK gas futures. - 15/01/2025
Weather fundamentals are offering opposing signals this morning, with a drop in temperatures providing bullish pressure to prompt energy contracts, but a recovery in wind output offsetting this for day-ahead baseload. - 15/01/2025
Temperatures have recovered to around seasonal normal levels after the recent cold snap, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts. For prompt baseload, this is being offset by a decline in wind output. - 14/01/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bearish to bearish in morning trading, with the market retreating from high prices reached during yesterday's rally. Geopolitics and fundamentals had combined to drive prices up. - 14/01/2025
Temperature and wind forecasts for the UK and Germany in late Jan-25 have been revised downwards, though remain close to the previous forecast. This could lead to greater reliance on storage and support futures. - 14/01/2025
The new US sanctions package on Russian LNG facilities and vessels is providing some support to UK energy futures, but the exclusion of key facilities, Yamal and Sakhalin, limits the bullish pressure in Europe and Asia. - 14/01/2025
Outages at Norwegian gas facilities will peek on Thursday before a period of no planned maintenance through to late Feb. The scope of the outage at Visund, starting today, has been decreased from 6.5mcm to 3mcm - 14/01/2025
UK gas energy are pointing up in morning trading, with an attack by Ukraine on Russian Turkstream pipeline infrastructure provoking concerns of reduced Russian gas flows to Europe. - 13/01/2025
Concerns over UK and European storage are supporting UK gas futures, particularly with Centrica warning of dangerously low storage levels. This is somewhat offset by the government saying there is no need for concern. - 13/01/2025
The UK's gas supply picture is limiting upside to energy futures, with the Norwegian Kolsness facility returning from unplanned outage, warmer weather forecasts and more LNG cargoes being secured (up to 16 for Jan-25). - 13/01/2025
The Brent Crude benchmark is pointing up in morning trading, with additional sanctions on the Russian crude oil industry by the US stoking fears of a drop in global supply. - 13/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing up this morning, with a sharp drop in wind generation, recovery to the UK carbon benchmark and outage at Heysham 2-7 (615MW) supporting prices despite rising temperatures. - 13/01/2025
The Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor (595MW) has gone offline on an unplanned outage, restricting domestic low-carbon power supply and offering support to day-ahead energy contracts through to 22-Jan. - 10/01/2025
Temperatures in the UK are forecast to begin recovering to seasonal normal levels over the weekend after this cold snap. Coupled with a recovery in wind generation, this is providing bearish signals to day-ahead contracts. - 10/01/2025
European storage has fallen to 68% amid this recent cold spell, but warmer weather forecasts for the UK and Europe in January could provide some bearish signals to closer-dated gas futures on limited further withdrawals. - 10/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is trading neutral-bullish this morning, though upside continues to be suppressed by oversupply. The first auction of the year took place on Wednesday and saw prices close below £33/tCO2e. - 10/01/2025
Near curve UK gas futures are bearish in morning trading, with the UK securing a 15th LNG cargo for Jan-25 and Europe also showing strong imports. However, further downside is limited by the need to outprice Asia. - 10/01/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts have pushed up this morning, with declining wind generation into tomorrow increasing gas-for-power demand. Support is also coming from colder temperatures increasing household heating demand. - 09/01/2025
An anticipated increase in European LNG import demand in 2025, driven by rapidly depleting storage, reduced Russian pipeline supply and rising industrial demand is continuing to provide bullish signals along the curve. - 09/01/2025
Norway have extended their outage at the Hammerfest LNG facility by 10 days until 19-Jan. Coupled with an unspecified outage at their Kollsnes facility, this is offering support to prompt and near curve gas contracts on tighter supply. - 09/01/2025
The UK have secured an additional 2 LNG cargoes for Jan-25, bringing the total to 14, limiting any further upside to near-curve gas contracts on signs of stable supply and enhanced capacity for storage injections. - 09/01/2025
Slovakia's Prime Minister confirms that Slovakia have secured gas supply from Russia despite the ending of the Ukrainian transit deal. Details of the deal remain unclear but it highlights Slovakia's efforts to ensure energy security. - 09/01/2025
European storage has been depleting at a rate not seen since 2018, when storage finished the winter at 36%, due to cold weather. This remains the primary supporting factor for UK energy futures. - 08/01/2025
A five-year deal has been struck between Austria's OMV to supply Germany's Uniper with gas from 2027, limiting upside to Summer-27+ contracts as Europe diversifies away from Russian gas to enhance energy security. - 08/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are neutral-bearish to bearish despite an outage at Norway's Kollsnes facility and an undersupplied system. A slight increase in wind generation tomorrow is expected to reduce gas-for-power demand. - 08/01/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning after rallying yesterday on storage concerns and fears of potential damage to UK and European subsea interconnectors by ships in Russia's shadow fleet. - 08/01/2025
US Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi 3 expansion on train-1 is six months ahead of schedule and is expected to be completed by the end of Q1-25, sending bearish signals along the curve on a boost in global LNG supply. - 08/01/2025
Unfavourable weather fundamentals, with plummeting wind generation and unseasonably low temperatures are offering support to prompt contracts on increased gas-for-power and household heating demand. - 07/01/2025
Central European gas flows have adjusted to the loss of Russia supply via Ukraine, with increased shipments from Germany and Italy compensating for the shortfall, providing bearish signals along the curve on improving supply conditions. - 07/01/2025
Larger than average storage depletions in the UK and Europe, which are down 35% and 17%, year-on-year are providing support to near-curve and seasonal gas contracts on increased buying pressure fuelled by injection demand. - 07/01/2025
Europe continues to be the premium LNG destination over Asia, despite current cold spells in the region. Germany's Wilhelmshaven terminal has cancelled its first-quarter shutdown due to strong interest and high utilisation demand. - 07/01/2025
UK energy futures are showing mixed price action this morning after yesterday's decline, on warmer temperature forecasts for the UK and NWE, as well as the announcement that Norway's Hammerfest LNG will return on 09-Jan. - 07/01/2025
Wind generation is falling into tomorrow, offering support to prompt baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Downside to the UK carbon benchmark is limiting some upside. - 06/01/2025
The UK has secured a 12th LNG cargo for Jan-25 despite the outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG, providing bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to attract LNG from the Americas and West Africa. - 06/01/2025
Europe continues to increase its regasification capacity with a new Italian 5bcm LNG FSRU due online in Q2-25. This could improve European imports prospects as it continues to diversify away from Russian gas. - 06/01/2025
The UK gas system opened up oversupplied this morning, providing downside to day-ahead gas contracts on sufficient pipeline supply. Colder temperatures increasing household heating demand are limiting further downside. - 06/01/2025
UK gas futures are largely bearish this morning, easing from recent highs as concerns over the loss of Russian flows wane. Increased LNG imports and milder temperatures into next week are also providing bearish signals. - 06/01/2025
A sharp rise in wind generation to above seasonal levels into Monday is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on reduced gas-for-power demand. Bullish signals from UK carbon are limiting further downside. - 03/01/2025
An unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG, reducing 18 mcm/d of supply, is tightening European supply and supporting prompt contracts as the region experiences higher demand from colder weather. - 03/01/2025
The UK gas system opened up under supplied this morning despite Norway prioritising and redirecting flows to the UK over the Continent. Tight supply and low temperatures are offsetting any bearish pressure from improved wind. - 03/01/2025
Ukraine received their first US LNG cargo via Greece this week as Russian gas flows halted. This signals improved supply flexibility and a move toward diversification away from Russian gas in the region. - 03/01/2025
Freezing weather forecasts in the US are raising concerns about production disruptions and reduced LNG output amid higher domestic demand for natural gas for heating. This could be supportive to the near curve. - 03/01/2025
Weather fundamental are offering support to prompt energy contracts, with a current cold snap in the UK and unseasonably low wind generation increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 02/01/2025
The UK secured an additional 2 LNG cargoes in Dec-24 bringing the total to 22 (10% increase year-on-year) and 11 are scheduled for Jan-25. This is limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts on stable supply. - 02/01/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning after rallying from the expiration of the Ukrainian transit agreement. Russian flows to Europe via Ukraine halted early Wednesday morning, tightening European supply. - 02/01/2025
The 580MW Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactor remains offline, with the outage extended by 4 weeks into mid-January restricting the UK's nuclear capacity to 91% despite earlier forecasts of 100% capacity by Jan-25. - 02/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing down in morning trading after moving to the upside through the second half of Dec-24. This could spur some downside to UK baseload futures. - 02/01/2025
The 595MW Hartlepool 1 and the 580MW Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactors are due back online early next week, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts as the UK's nuclear capacity returns to 100%. - 20/12/2024
The UK has secured additional LNG cargoes for Dec-24 and Jan-25 bringing the totals to 20 and 3 respectively, with December on par with last year, limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to attract cargoes. - 20/12/2024
UK gas futures are bullish this morning after rallying yesterday afternoon. Markets had been pricing in a likelihood that Ukrainian gas transit continues next year but any hopes have been dashed by statements from Russia and Ukraine. - 20/12/2024
Germany's Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal plans to market capacity for LNG shipments in May-25, with limited slots available earlier in the year, reflecting Europe's efforts to stabilise energy supplies and diversify away from Russian gas. - 20/12/2024
A decline in wind generation throughout next week is offering support to prompt contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Temperatures will also start the week supportive, before rising, limiting household heating demand. - 20/12/2024
The UK has secured a 2nd LNG cargo for Jan-25, with weakening demand signals from Asia and high storage in the region easing supply competition and limiting upside to near curve energy contracts. - 19/12/2024
Prompt contracts are currently being supported by a drop in wind generation and temperatures into tomorrow, increasing gas-fired and household heating demand. The ongoing ElecLink outage exacerbates the bullish impact. - 19/12/2024
Near-curve energy contracts are neutral-bullish to bullish, driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding Eastern European supplies and further storage withdrawals. The recent price decline is also providing buying pressure. - 19/12/2024
The EU Commission's outlook of adequate supply in Europe next year is backed by Italian economists, who expect Q4-25 prices to fall compared to Q4-24, if Turkstream volumes remain stable and global LNG flows rise in H2-25. - 19/12/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark has edged down this morning, with the US Federal Reserve indicating it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand. - 19/12/2024
A sharp drop in temperatures is offering support to day-ahead contracts on elevated Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand, which is forecast up 44mcm/d tomorrow. High wind output is limiting bullish pressure. - 18/12/2024
UK gas futures rose in yesterday's trading on renewed concerns surrounding the expiration of the Ukrainian transit agreement, with the European Commission stating it has no interest in continued Russian gas transit via Ukraine. - 18/12/2024
Ukraine's offer to transit non-Russian gas to Western Europe, despite ruling out an extension of the Russian gas deal, is limiting any bullish pressure coming from limited European interest in a transit deal. - 18/12/2024
The unplanned outage at the UK-France Eleclink interconnector (1GW) has been extended by 8-weeks until early February, offering support to front month baseload contracts on diminished import prospects. - 18/12/2024
Norway's Nyhamna facility remains on an unplanned outage with an impact of 30mcm/d, limiting downside to day-ahead gas contracts on tighter supply balance. - 18/12/2024
A spike in temperatures to above seasonal levels and firm wind output, are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on limited gas-for-power and heating demand. - 17/12/2024
Asian end-users are offloading excess LNG cargoes back into the spot market, amid robust storage levels, combined with new US supply from Plaquemine's, are limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts on improved supply dynamics. - 17/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning after experiencing substantial losses over the past week, on milder weather forecasts for the UK and Europe and easing supply concerns weighing on prices. - 17/12/2024
Hungary have found a workable solution to continue paying for Russian gas received via the Turkstream, without violating US sanctions, fuelling bearish sentiment along the curve by enhancing European supply security. - 17/12/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK have edged down this morning, alongside projected injections into storage are pushing up day-ahead gas contracts on tighter supply balance. - 17/12/2024
The UK has begun securing LNG cargoes for Jan-25 with 1 currently scheduled, providing downside to near-curve contracts as the country continues to attract LNG, boosting our ability to inject into storage after recent downdraws. - 16/12/2024
A slight dip in wind generation and temperatures into tomorrow are pushing up day-ahead baseload prices on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. Gains in the UK carbon benchmark are also offering support. - 16/12/2024
Improving supply conditions, driven by the start-up of the Plaquemine's LNG facility, minimal maintenance activity at LNG facilities, and reduced demand signals from Asia are providing bearish signals along the curve. - 16/12/2024
Recent day-ahead market spikes are offering some support to near-curve baseload prices, underscoring the risk to UK import prospects of simultaneous renewable output declines in interconnected European markets. - 16/12/2024
The EU carbon benchmark continues to mirror downside seen in gas markets, though weaker in magnitude, with a lack of auctions this week and the expiration of the Dec-24 contract limiting further downside. - 16/12/2024
The prompt UK baseload contract is tumbling in morning trading on a sharp increase in wind generation in the UK and the Continent, and improving nuclear supply. Prices now sit sharply below recent highs. - 13/12/2024
The Heysham 2-8 (615MW) returns over the weekend, but the restart date of the Heysham 1-2 (580MW) reactor has been pushed from today to 20-Dec. Despite the delay, nuclear capacity is increasing to over 80%. - 13/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, with geopolitical risk from Russia-Ukraine and increased buying interest following yesterday's sharp drop in prices supportive. - 13/12/2024
Asian demand woes have been brought into focus by a drop in Asian equities and continued weak demand signals from China. This drove yesterday's market fall and is acting to limit upside in morning trading. - 13/12/2024
The UK has secured 19 LNG cargoes for Dec-24 delivery. This is only 1 cargo below levels last year and weak demand signals from Asia could see Europe continue to secure further cargoes. - 13/12/2024
The day-ahead baseload contract is pointing sharply down in morning trading, with a rise in wind generation on the Continent improving import prospects and Heysham 1-2 (580MW) due to come back online. - 12/12/2024
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