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UK energy futures have opened bullish this morning after falling in yesterday's trading. Concerns over a potential retaliation from Iran and over the stability of European supply this winter are supportive. - 29/10/2024
Delivered volumes of LNG are up from a week earlier in Asia, and down in Europe, signalling a continuation of firm Asian LNG demand and supporting near curve energy contracts. - 29/10/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up in morning trading, continuing to recover from the downside seen late last week. Limited low-carbon power availability in the near term is the primary support. - 29/10/2024
Day-ahead gas is bullish this morning on cooler temperatures and falling wind generation. Prompt baseload is bearish despite the wind reduction as import availability offsets the bullish pressure. - 29/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened balanced this morning, with the Kollsness gas field coming back online and there currently being no unplanned outages. - 29/10/2024
Israeli attacks on Iranian missile and defence facilities have mitigated some concerns around a widening conflict in the Middle East and are eroding some of the risk premium to energy futures. - 28/10/2024
The UK have secured another cargo for Oct-24, now up to 5 cargoes, and 2 for the month of Nov-24. This offers some bearish pressure to near-curve contracts on signs of improving LNG supply. - 28/10/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is pointing sharply down this morning after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran’s oil and nuclear facilities, not disrupting energy supplies. - 28/10/2024
Temperatures in the UK and Northwest Europe have been revised up, from the last forecast, for November. This is easing concerns of an early start to storage withdrawals, offering downside to the near curve. - 28/10/2024
A sharp drop in wind generation into tomorrow is offering support to day-ahead energy prices, particularly power. This is somewhat mitigated by increasing temperatures and continued strong imports. - 28/10/2024
Prompt contracts are taking direction from weather fundamentals this morning, with baseload pointing down on increased wind into next week and gas up on falling temperatures. - 25/10/2024
The IFA2 interconnector and North Sea Link interconnector are due back online over the weekend, increasing prospects of power imports, sending bearish signals to day ahead baseload prices into next week. - 25/10/2024
The Brent Crude Benchmark is pointing marginally down this morning on the restart of peace talks in Gaza. The impact is limited though as positive sentiment for successful peace talks remains minimal. - 25/10/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, continuing the weeks trend. Support is coming from colder weather forecasts, concerns over Norwegian maintenance, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. - 25/10/2024
EU carbon benchmark is sideways this morning as the bullish momentum from yesterday's short-covering rally subsides. Cooler temperatures and lower renewable output offer some support, limiting downside. - 25/10/2024
A sharp drop off in wind generation into tomorrow is exerting bullish pressure on prompt energy contracts and pushing up UK carbon prices marginally on increased demand for gas-fired generation. - 24/10/2024
UK prompt contracts are receiving support in morning trading from another unplanned outage at a Norwegian gas facility. However, the UK gas system opened oversupplied this morning, indicating sufficient supply. - 24/10/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is pointing up this morning, almost reversing previous session's losses, as Middle East tensions came back into focus ahead of the US election. - 24/10/2024
Near curve UK gas futures are continuing the weeks bullish trend on concerns stemming from a colder weather forecast into November and Norwegian supply constraints due to unplanned outages. - 24/10/2024
UK seasonal gas futures are also pointing to the upside, with the short-term tightening of supply potentially leading to significant storage withdrawals, in addition to delays to new LNG facilities tightening the market into 2025. - 24/10/2024
A slight rise in wind generation into tomorrow is adding bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts, though downside is limited by reduced UK nuclear capacity which is maintaining reliance on gas-fired generation. - 23/10/2024
Day-ahead gas contracts rose yesterday due to an unplanned outage from a fire at a Norwegian facility, but the UK gas system opened oversupplied this morning, indicating sufficient pipeline supply. - 23/10/2024
Robust storage levels in Japan and South Korea combined with milder temperatures, which are delaying the start of heating season in the region, are limiting upside along the curve on reduced supply competition for LNG. - 23/10/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning after making strong gains yesterday on news of delays to the next wave of US LNG supply into 2025+ heightening concerns of market tightness next year. - 23/10/2024
Forecasts of a cold snap into November and unseasonably low wind generation amid reduced UK nuclear output is providing bullish pressure to near-curve contracts on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. - 23/10/2024
UK energy futures rose in yesterday's trading and look poised for another day of bullish price action this morning. Delays to new LNG facilities and a new Egyptian tender for 20 LNG cargoes in Q1-25 are supportive. - 22/10/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is neutral-bullish this morning, with support from gas markets being offset by higher volumes due to 5 auctions this week. - 22/10/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is pointing up this morning despite the fundamentally bearish picture, with geopolitics offering support against a backdrop of weak Chinese demand and ample supply. - 22/10/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is continuing its upwards trend in morning trading, with more limited availability of low-carbon energy source through to December encouraging speculators to increase net long positions. - 22/10/2024
Prompt energy contracts are pointing up this morning as wind generation falls further into tomorrow. A strike at French nuclear facilities could also be raising some risk of reduced output, and by extension exports. - 22/10/2024
The UK has secured an additional cargo for the month of October, now up to 4 cargoes and 1 for the month of November. This offers some bearish pressure to near-curve contracts on signs of improving LNG dynamics. - 21/10/2024
The UK gas system opened 7 mcm undersupplied this morning on a reduction in Norwegian exports due to a continued outage at Troll. Combined with falling temperatures, this is offering support to day-ahead contracts. - 21/10/2024
The prompt baseload contract is pointing sharply up this morning on a large drop in wind generation into tomorrow. Combined with reduced nuclear capacity, this is raising strong demand for gas-fired generation. - 21/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark edged up this morning on geopolitical concerns after seeing a more than 7% drop last week on continued demand suppression in China and an easing concerns in the Middle East. - 21/10/2024
UK gas futures are pointing up in morning trading, with a recent assassination attempt on the Israeli PM reversing some of the downside seen last week on easing concerns around a widening conflict in the Middle East. - 21/10/2024
Favourable weather fundamentals into Monday are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts on higher wind output and above seasonal normal temperatures reducing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 18/10/2024
The day-ahead gas contract is sideways this morning, with an undersupplied system and reduced Norwegian flows being offset by reduced Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand. - 18/10/2024
The 595MW Torness 1 nuclear reactor is going offline today, reducing the UK's nuclear capacity to 62%, offering support to the UK carbon benchmark into November and limiting downside to day-ahead baseload. - 18/10/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning. Concerns in the Middle East are easing as the killing of Hamas' leader improves peace prospects, and Israeli rhetoric suggesting strikes on Iran will be limited to military targets. - 18/10/2024
Forecasts of a cold snap in the second half of November driven by the La Nina weather phenomenon are limiting downside on near-curve contracts on prospects of larger storage drawdowns. - 18/10/2024
Day-ahead gas contracts have edged up this morning on tighter supply amid reduced flows from Norway. However, warmer temperatures are limiting upside on reduced household heating demand. - 17/10/2024
Unexpected increases in LNG demand from South Korea and Japan are offering bullish signals to 2025+ contracts, boosting competition with Europe amid tighter LNG supply dynamics. - 17/10/2024
UK gas futures continue to trade in a tight range, displaying neutral-bullish price action this morning. Ongoing uncertainty around Israel's response to Iran and overall comfortable market fundamentals send opposing signals. - 17/10/2024
UK LNG imports are down 70% year-on-year for Oct-24 which alongside storage downdraws are applying bullish-pressure to near-curve contracts, particularly as we head into the winter heating season. - 17/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is trading sideways as it awaits news on China's stimulus plan and US oil inventory data. Fears have eased somewhat over a potential retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran, however risk remains. - 17/10/2024
The UK gas system opened up 22mcm undersupplied this morning, supporting intraday prices. An expected reduction in flows via Langeled into tomorrow is pushing up day-ahead gas prices on tighter pipeline supply. - 16/10/2024
Ukraine is expected to face an electricity deficit of around 6 GW over winter, with the end of the Russian pipeline deal applying bullish pressure along the curve due to increased demand for power imports and LNG. - 16/10/2024
Day-ahead baseload contracts are receiving bullish signals from plummeting wind generation into tomorrow on increased gas-for-power demand. Interconnector outages are exacerbating the impact on limited power imports. - 16/10/2024
Despite high European storage levels, Europe will start the winter with 6bcm less overall inventory than last year, primarily due to lower volumes in LNG storage. This is offering support to 2025+ contracts. - 16/10/2024
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, reversing yesterday's downside. Markets are trading in a tight range, moving to the downside one day and recovering the next amid opposing signals from fundamentals and geopolitics. - 16/10/2024
The return of the Heysham 1-1 (580MW) and Hartlepool 2 (595MW) nuclear reactors today and tomorrow, respectively, will boost UK nuclear capacity by 20%, providing downside to the day-ahead baseload contract. - 15/10/2024
UK gas futures are trading down this morning, retracing yesterdays gains stemming from an unplanned Norwegian outages curbing supply and ongoing concerns around escalating conflicts in the Middle East. - 15/10/2024
Favourable weather fundamentals are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead contracts on increased wind generation and higher temperatures into tomorrow, reducing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 15/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is continuing to trade down this morning, with both OPEC and the IEA cutting global oil demand growth expectations amid muted demand in China. - 15/10/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is mirroring losses seen in the gas market. Additional bearish signals are also stemming from positive weather fundamentals on the Continent. - 15/10/2024
A sharp rise is wind generation into tomorrow is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts. However, downside is limited by increasing reliance on gas-fired generation due to reduced UK nuclear output. - 14/10/2024
The UK has lost it's only LNG cargo for Nov-24, offering bullish signals to the front month. While demand remains tepid in Asia, supply could tighten due to nuclear outages in Japan and disruptions at Malaysian LNG facilities. - 14/10/2024
Weather fundamentals are offering bearish signals to day-ahead gas, but unplanned and extended Norwegian outages are offsetting any downside on tighter supply fundamentals. - 14/10/2024
High net short positions are supporting carbon markets, with the expectation of increased buying interest to cover short positions encouraging other speculative traders to take long positions. - 14/10/2024
Brent Crude benchmark is retracing last weeks gains with weak economic data coming from China, the world's biggest crude importer, offsetting geopolitical risk from the Middle East. - 14/10/2024
The prompt UK baseload contract is pointing up this morning as Hartlepool 1 (595MW) and Sizewell B-2 (630MW) go offline for maintenance today. The return of Hartlepool 2 (595MW) tomorrow is limiting the upside. - 11/10/2024
The day-ahead gas contract is moving to the downside this morning on the return of the Norwegian Troll gas field and warmer temperatures into next week. Continued injection and gas-fired demand are limiting downside. - 11/10/2024
UK gas futures are bearish this morning, giving back some of yesterday's gains. Prices remain subdued relative to Friday's highs but continue trading in a tight range on opposing signals from fundamentals and geopolitics. - 11/10/2024
EU carbon has made strong gains this week on the back of technical traders, though morning trading is seeing the benchmark contract move to the downside as buying interest wanes. - 11/10/2024
Forecasts of wind generation mostly below seasonal norms through November, in combination with tighter nuclear availability, have supported UK carbon this week, though some of the gains are eroding in morning trading. - 11/10/2024
The UK and EU carbon benchmarks are continuing the weeks bullish trend in morning trading. Increased gas demand for the winter is supporting the UK, whilst the recovery in gas markets sends bullish signals to the EU. - 10/10/2024
The UK has lost one of its LNG cargoes scheduled for Oct-24 (previously 4, now 3). However, UK and European gas prices continue to trade above those in Asian markets, encouraging LNG cargoes. - 10/10/2024
UK gas futures are pointing up in morning trading, recovering from some of yesterday's strong downside. Positive sentiment from National Gas' winter outlook remains, whilst some concerns from the Middle East are easing. - 10/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened 10mcm/d long this morning, providing bearish signals to prompt contracts on signs that similar firm flows will continue into tomorrow. - 10/10/2024
Wind generation is forecasted to begin falling into tomorrow, adding bullish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts for the remainder of the week on increased demand for gas-fired generation. - 10/10/2024
The 595MW Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor restart date has been delayed by 3 days to 12-Oct, offering support to prompt contracts for the remainder of the week. - 09/10/2024
Rising wind generation into tomorrow is providing bearish signals to prompt baseload markets on reduced gas-fired demand. However, falling temperatures are offering support to day-ahead gas. - 09/10/2024
UK and EU carbon benchmarks are rallying in morning trading. The UK ETS has been staging a recovery this week after falling in previous weeks, whilst EU carbon is reversing losses from earlier in the week. - 09/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened 19mcm/d long this morning, with ample supply leaving room for storage injections again today and providing bearish signals to the near curve. - 09/10/2024
UK gas futures have followed a bearish trend this week, reversing last week's strong upside as National Gas expects ample supply during the winter unless a cold snap coincides with a significant supply disruption. - 09/10/2024
UK gas futures are pointing down in morning trading, continuing the trend from yesterday. Risk still remains from escalations in the Middle East, but positive fundamentals are seeing some of this risk be eroded. - 08/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened 8mcm/d long this morning, providing bearish signals to prompt on signs of sufficient pipeline supply despite the ongoing outage at the Norwegian Troll gas field. - 08/10/2024
Rising wind generation into tomorrow is exerting bearish pressure on day-ahead energy contracts on reduced demand for gas-fired generation. - 08/10/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is trading down this morning, with milder temperatures and higher renewable output this week. Easing gas prices are also exerting some bearish pressure. - 08/10/2024
UK storage had fallen in recent weeks as cooler temperatures and Norwegian maintenance saw a short-term tightening of supply. Injections are continuing today, offering bearish signals to the near-curve. - 08/10/2024
The UK has secured 4 LNG cargoes for the month of October and 1 LNG cargo for the month of November. This boost in supply is offering some bearish pressure to near-curve energy contracts. - 07/10/2024
The UK gas system opened 30 mcm undersupplied this morning, with an outage at Norway's Troll gas field and injection demand. Troll's return tomorrow could offer relief to day-ahead, though injection demand persists. - 07/10/2024
The Sizewell B-1 (630MW) nuclear facility went offline yesterday, providing bullish pressure to prompt contracts this week. Offsetting some of this upside will be the return of Hartlepool 2 (595MW) on Wednesday. - 07/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is continuing last week's bullish rally in morning trading, with Israeli threats to hit Iranian oil fields remaining a supportive element. China is currently chief amongst the buyers of Iranian oil. - 07/10/2024
UK gas futures are easing somewhat in morning trading after rallying towards the end of last week on geopolitical concerns. Fundamentally, Europe has strong storage, ample supply, and suppressed demand. - 07/10/2024
Weather fundamentals are offering overall bearish signals this morning, with wind generation and temperatures rising from today's level into Monday. - 04/10/2024
The 595MW Heysham 2-7 nuclear reactor is back online 3 days early. However, the 630MW Sizewell B-1 reactor is due to offline this weekend, supporting day-ahead baseload contracts into Monday. - 04/10/2024
UK gas futures are trading sideways this morning after rising yesterday on mounting concerns that Israel could attack Iranian oil facilities, a clear escalation of the conflict in the region. - 04/10/2024
The commissioning of the Dogger Bank A wind farm has been delayed to H2-25, raising concerns of delays to Dogger Bank B and C. This could offer some support to UK energy futures from 2025 onwards. - 04/10/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is trading down this morning with milder temperatures and an expected increase in wind output across Northwest Europe reducing gas demand. - 04/10/2024
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Oct- 24, bringing the total to 4. Despite this, near curve gas contracts are trading up in morning trading, reversing yesterday's downside. - 03/10/2024
The UK gas system opened up oversupplied this morning as Norwegian flows to the UK edge up by 10mcm/d. The increased supply has seen the UK able to make some minor injections into storage this morning. - 03/10/2024
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global gas demand to rise by 2.6% this year, spurred by Asian demand. This could be a supportive element to energy futures if we see this trend continue into 2025. - 03/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark continues to make gains amid supply risks from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, OPEC+ are increasing production from December onwards, limiting upside. - 03/10/2024
A gradual increase in wind generation to above seasonal levels is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts. Gains in the UK carbon benchmark are restricting further downside. - 03/10/2024
The UK have secured an additional LNG cargo for Oct-24, bringing the total up to 3. This boost in supply is offering some bearish pressure on near-curve energy contracts, despite current tightness in the global LNG supply. - 02/10/2024
A sharp drop in wind generation below seasonal levels is offering support to day-ahead baseload contracts and pushing up the UK carbon benchmark on increased gas-for-power demand. - 02/10/2024
A new Greek LNG terminal has launched helping to diversify supply of LNG to Europe via the Vertical Corridor initiative, providing bearish signals to energy futures on prospects of greater LNG supply for the region. - 02/10/2024
The market continues to weigh ongoing concerns around the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which is limiting downside on UK gas contracts. Strong storage levels are providing a cushion to upside risk. - 02/10/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is trading up this morning on fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East disrupting oil supply, with key OPEC member Iran launching a series of missile strikes against Israel. - 02/10/2024
Declining UK nuclear output into October, coupled with weak wind generation and cooler temperatures, is offering support to prompt contracts through October on increased gas demand. - 01/10/2024
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