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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
The 595MW Hartlepool 1 and the 580MW Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactors are due back online early next week, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts as the UK's nuclear capacity returns to 100%. - 20/12/2024
The UK has secured additional LNG cargoes for Dec-24 and Jan-25 bringing the totals to 20 and 3 respectively, with December on par with last year, limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to attract cargoes. - 20/12/2024
UK gas futures are bullish this morning after rallying yesterday afternoon. Markets had been pricing in a likelihood that Ukrainian gas transit continues next year but any hopes have been dashed by statements from Russia and Ukraine. - 20/12/2024
Germany's Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal plans to market capacity for LNG shipments in May-25, with limited slots available earlier in the year, reflecting Europe's efforts to stabilise energy supplies and diversify away from Russian gas. - 20/12/2024
A decline in wind generation throughout next week is offering support to prompt contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Temperatures will also start the week supportive, before rising, limiting household heating demand. - 20/12/2024
The UK has secured a 2nd LNG cargo for Jan-25, with weakening demand signals from Asia and high storage in the region easing supply competition and limiting upside to near curve energy contracts. - 19/12/2024
Prompt contracts are currently being supported by a drop in wind generation and temperatures into tomorrow, increasing gas-fired and household heating demand. The ongoing ElecLink outage exacerbates the bullish impact. - 19/12/2024
Near-curve energy contracts are neutral-bullish to bullish, driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding Eastern European supplies and further storage withdrawals. The recent price decline is also providing buying pressure. - 19/12/2024
The EU Commission's outlook of adequate supply in Europe next year is backed by Italian economists, who expect Q4-25 prices to fall compared to Q4-24, if Turkstream volumes remain stable and global LNG flows rise in H2-25. - 19/12/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark has edged down this morning, with the US Federal Reserve indicating it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing oil demand. - 19/12/2024
A sharp drop in temperatures is offering support to day-ahead contracts on elevated Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand, which is forecast up 44mcm/d tomorrow. High wind output is limiting bullish pressure. - 18/12/2024
UK gas futures rose in yesterday's trading on renewed concerns surrounding the expiration of the Ukrainian transit agreement, with the European Commission stating it has no interest in continued Russian gas transit via Ukraine. - 18/12/2024
Ukraine's offer to transit non-Russian gas to Western Europe, despite ruling out an extension of the Russian gas deal, is limiting any bullish pressure coming from limited European interest in a transit deal. - 18/12/2024
The unplanned outage at the UK-France Eleclink interconnector (1GW) has been extended by 8-weeks until early February, offering support to front month baseload contracts on diminished import prospects. - 18/12/2024
Norway's Nyhamna facility remains on an unplanned outage with an impact of 30mcm/d, limiting downside to day-ahead gas contracts on tighter supply balance. - 18/12/2024
A spike in temperatures to above seasonal levels and firm wind output, are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on limited gas-for-power and heating demand. - 17/12/2024
Asian end-users are offloading excess LNG cargoes back into the spot market, amid robust storage levels, combined with new US supply from Plaquemine's, are limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts on improved supply dynamics. - 17/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning after experiencing substantial losses over the past week, on milder weather forecasts for the UK and Europe and easing supply concerns weighing on prices. - 17/12/2024
Hungary have found a workable solution to continue paying for Russian gas received via the Turkstream, without violating US sanctions, fuelling bearish sentiment along the curve by enhancing European supply security. - 17/12/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK have edged down this morning, alongside projected injections into storage are pushing up day-ahead gas contracts on tighter supply balance. - 17/12/2024
The UK has begun securing LNG cargoes for Jan-25 with 1 currently scheduled, providing downside to near-curve contracts as the country continues to attract LNG, boosting our ability to inject into storage after recent downdraws. - 16/12/2024
A slight dip in wind generation and temperatures into tomorrow are pushing up day-ahead baseload prices on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. Gains in the UK carbon benchmark are also offering support. - 16/12/2024
Improving supply conditions, driven by the start-up of the Plaquemine's LNG facility, minimal maintenance activity at LNG facilities, and reduced demand signals from Asia are providing bearish signals along the curve. - 16/12/2024
Recent day-ahead market spikes are offering some support to near-curve baseload prices, underscoring the risk to UK import prospects of simultaneous renewable output declines in interconnected European markets. - 16/12/2024
The EU carbon benchmark continues to mirror downside seen in gas markets, though weaker in magnitude, with a lack of auctions this week and the expiration of the Dec-24 contract limiting further downside. - 16/12/2024
The prompt UK baseload contract is tumbling in morning trading on a sharp increase in wind generation in the UK and the Continent, and improving nuclear supply. Prices now sit sharply below recent highs. - 13/12/2024
The Heysham 2-8 (615MW) returns over the weekend, but the restart date of the Heysham 1-2 (580MW) reactor has been pushed from today to 20-Dec. Despite the delay, nuclear capacity is increasing to over 80%. - 13/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, with geopolitical risk from Russia-Ukraine and increased buying interest following yesterday's sharp drop in prices supportive. - 13/12/2024
Asian demand woes have been brought into focus by a drop in Asian equities and continued weak demand signals from China. This drove yesterday's market fall and is acting to limit upside in morning trading. - 13/12/2024
The UK has secured 19 LNG cargoes for Dec-24 delivery. This is only 1 cargo below levels last year and weak demand signals from Asia could see Europe continue to secure further cargoes. - 13/12/2024
The day-ahead baseload contract is pointing sharply down in morning trading, with a rise in wind generation on the Continent improving import prospects and Heysham 1-2 (580MW) due to come back online. - 12/12/2024
UK gas futures are bearish this morning after falling in yesterday's trading on an announcement by the European commission that they anticipate the end of the Ukrainian gas transit to have little impact on prices. - 12/12/2024
Storage withdrawals are anticipated today in the UK and the Continent, with continued depletion providing support to near curve and 2025 seasonal contracts on greater injection demand next year. - 12/12/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is neutral-bearish this morning after climbing through the start of the week. However, high gas-fired generation demand through the course of this week has been supportive in recent days. - 12/12/2024
There are growing concerns that Australia, one of the world's top three LNG exporters, may be set to declare a gas shortfall in mid-2025 and restrict exports. The market response has so far been limited but it could be supportive. - 12/12/2024
The day-ahead baseload contract is pointing up this morning, setting a new year high on the back of a further decline in wind generation into tomorrow and continued weak imports due to high demand on the Continent. - 11/12/2024
The Torness 2 (595MW) nuclear reactor has come back online today, a day ahead of schedule, but the slow restart time on nuclear reactors is limiting any bearish pressure to day-ahead contracts. - 11/12/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is pointing up in morning trading as the US considers extending sanctions on the Russian crude oil industry. Prices still remain suppressed relative to the rest of his year. - 11/12/2024
UK gas futures are pointing sideways this morning. Prices recovered slightly yesterday from Monday's downside as high gas-fired demand increased storage withdrawals and Norway announced some minor outages. - 11/12/2024
The prompt gas contract is neutral-bearish this morning despite increased gas-fired generation demand as withdrawals from storage, heightened LNG boil off and warmer temperatures limit upside. - 11/12/2024
The day-ahead baseload contract has climbed sharply this morning, with higher prices in Europe discouraging imports to the UK and driving prices up in conjunction with a sharp drop in wind generation. - 10/12/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is neutral-bearish this morning, continuing to trend to the downside on demand destruction concerns despite record long positions from investors and supportive fundamentals this week. - 10/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish in morning trading. Markets fell in yesterday's trading, continuing to respond to prospects for continued Russian gas flows but downside remains limited by European storage concerns. - 10/12/2024
Israel has been conducting air strikes on Syrian army bases and installations and has pushed into Syrian territory. This is once again spooking the market on fears of a widening conflict in the region. - 10/12/2024
The UK has secured a 17th LNG cargo for Dec-24 delivery as Asian buying wanes amid high storage. The strong rise in the JKM benchmark in recent weeks is also discouraging cost-sensitive buyers like China - 10/12/2024
A sharp drop in wind generation into tomorrow is providing strong bullish pressure to the day-ahead baseload contract on increased gas generation in the stack. This is exacerbated by cooler temperatures. - 09/12/2024
The prompt gas contract is pointing down in morning trading. Increased gas flows from LNG hubs into the system and price spreads that encourage European imports are offsetting upside from higher heating and gas-fired demand. - 09/12/2024
Near curve gas contracts are moving to the downside this morning continuing to respond to positive developments around gas purchases, though storage concerns continue to limit downside. - 09/12/2024
The UK and Northwest Europe are expecting colder weather and weak wind this week, bringing storage concerns back into focus. European storage has fallen 11% in recent weeks, though UK remains above the 4-year average. - 09/12/2024
The restart date for the Torness 2 nuclear reactor (595MW) has been moved forwards from 15-Dec to 12-Dec. This could provide some bearish signals for baseload later in the week. - 09/12/2024
Weather fundamentals are providing bullish signals to prompt contracts into next week, with wind output and temperatures dropping over the weekend, raising heating and gas-fired demand. - 06/12/2024
UK gas futures have followed a bearish trajectory this week and are trading neutral-bearish this morning, with alleviating concerns around US sanctions on Russia offering prospects for further downside. - 06/12/2024
The overall picture for UK and European energy markets is supportive, with more competitive LNG markets, significant early storage depletion in Europe and an increasing unlikely transit agreement in Ukraine. - 06/12/2024
The UK remains an attractive destination for LNG cargoes in the near term, trading at a premium to Asian and European hubs on the front month. This could limit diversions to Asia amid heightened demand. - 06/12/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is neutral-bullish this morning after easing over the course of the past month amid demand destruction concerns from higher energy prices, providing bearish signals to power contracts. - 06/12/2024
A sharp drop in temperatures into tomorrow is pushing up day-ahead gas prices on elevated Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand, which is forecast up 20mcm/d tomorrow. - 05/12/2024
The 630MW Sizewell B-1 nuclear reactor is back online providing downside to day-ahead baseload contracts on a capacity increase to 63% . However, ongoing outages into mid-December continue to offer support to prompt prices. - 05/12/2024
The collapse of Germany's governing coalition could delay a law to waive a costly gas storage levy for European buyers further driving up gas prices, exacerbating current supply concerns, providing bullish signals along the curve. - 05/12/2024
Summer gas premiums are disincentivising European storage injections as high November withdrawals and competition for LNG have pushed S-25 to a premium over W-25. - 05/12/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, erasing recent losses, with political turmoil in France and Germany, colder weather forecasts and geopolitical risk from Russia and the Middle East offering support to prices. - 05/12/2024
The UK have secured an additional 1 LNG cargoes for Dec-24 bringing the total to 13, offering bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to secure cargoes despite heightened competition with Asia. - 04/12/2024
The Apr-25 US gas futures is trading above March which suggests ample winter supply, limiting upside to UK near curve prices but supporting S-25 contracts amid injection demand in Europe and Asia bolstering LNG competition. - 04/12/2024
Improving weather fundamentals, with a sharp rise in wind generation and rising temperatures into tomorrow are providing downside to day-ahead energy contracts on limited heating and gas-fired demand. - 04/12/2024
The UK gas system opened up oversupplied this morning signalling sufficient pipeline supply and providing bearish pressure to day-ahead gas contracts on improved supply prospects. - 04/12/2024
Near-term UK energy futures are neutral-bearish this morning retracing from recent highs amid reduced buying pressure. Colder weather forecasts and Russian and Middle Eastern geopolitics remain supportive. - 04/12/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK have risen as a higher NBP DA premium over TTF boosts the price appeal of the UK relative to European, encouraging imports and potentially loosening supply, limiting upside to day-ahead gas prices. - 03/12/2024
A number of LNG cargoes have been diverted from Europe to Asia to meet stronger demand, offering support to near-curve gas contracts on heightening competition for LNG and tighter European supply. - 03/12/2024
UK gas futures are sideways this morning after reaching 13-month highs yesterday fuelled by colder weather forecasts, declining Europe storage levels and a dip in Russian flows via Ukraine. - 03/12/2024
Australia's Pluto LNG facility has resumed operations and there are no major outages or maintenance activities at any global LNG facility, limiting upside along the curve on improving LNG supply dynamics. - 03/12/2024
Unseasonably low wind generation and reduced UK nuclear capacity are pushing up day-ahead baseload contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. Colder temperatures are also supportive on increased heating demand. - 03/12/2024
Weather fundamentals are offering support to day-ahead contracts, with a sharp drop in wind generation and falling temperatures into tomorrow pushing up gas-for-power and heating requirements. - 02/12/2024
UK energy futures are bullish this morning with news that the European Commission has increased the minimum storage requirements for February from next year to 50% from 45%, raising anticipated storage demand. - 02/12/2024
The 630MW Sizewell B-2 nuclear reactor has returned from maintenance early, increasing capacity to 54%. However, ongoing outages into mid-December continue to offer support to prompt contracts on increased gas-fired demand - 02/12/2024
Norway are expecting gas flows to the UK and Europe to hit record levels this winter and remain strong throughout 2025, due to a reduced maintenance schedule, limiting upside to seasonal contracts on improved supply prospects. - 02/12/2024
Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, following similar attacks by both sides on Friday, are raising questions about the ceasefire agreement signed last week. This is offering support to energy futures. - 02/12/2024
The 595MW Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor has gone offline for maintenance, reducing the UK's nuclear capacity to 44% and supporting prompt contracts through to mid-December on increased gas-fired demand. - 29/11/2024
Day-ahead gas contracts are pushing up on forecasts of a decline in wind generation into Monday increasing gas-for-power demand, offsetting reduced Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) requirements amid warmer temperatures. - 29/11/2024
Venture Global's Plaquemine's LNG facility has begun making LNG shipments available for purchase for the rest of 2025, offering bearish signals to front season contracts on improved LNG supply dynamics. - 29/11/2024
The UK continues to attract LNG cargoes, with 1 more LNG cargo being secured for Dec-24, bringing the total to 11. This is providing bearish pressure to near curve contracts on improved supply. - 29/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning with the market retracing from recent yearly highs. However, ongoing Russian geopolitical risk and heightened Asian LNG competition remain supportive, limiting further downside. - 29/11/2024
A sharp rise in wind generation into tomorrow is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices on reduced gas-for-power demand. However, ongoing nuclear outages are limiting further downside. - 28/11/2024
The UK have secured additional 3 LNG cargoes for Dec-24 bringing the total to 10, offering bearish signals to near-curve gas contracts as the UK supply security improves, though competition with Asia remains heightened. - 28/11/2024
Temperatures are forecast to climb above seasonal levels, lowering household heating requirements and reducing Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand by 26mcm/d limiting upside to day-ahead gas contracts. - 28/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning with little change in fundamental outlook as the market continues to weigh ceasefire news between Israel and Hezbollah. Ongoing Russian geopolitical risk remains a supportive element. - 28/11/2024
Day-ahead gas remains sideways despite improving weather, as the lower NBP DA premium over TTF reduces UK gas's price appeal relative to European gas, discouraging imports and potentially tightening supply. - 28/11/2024
The UK has lost one of it's LNG cargoes for Nov-24. It was initially rerouted from Asia to the UK last week, but is now heading to Turkey highlighting the continued competition in the spot market and the ongoing flexibility of LNG supplies. - 27/11/2024
Russia's Gazprom's base-case scenario assumes that there will be no extension of the Ukrainian transit agreement next year, which is continuing to be a supportive element to UK gas futures on tighter supply into 2025. - 27/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning, rebounding from recent upside on easing market risk amid a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah and milder weather forecasts in the near-term. - 27/11/2024
Wind generation and temperatures will dip further into tomorrow, offering support to prompt. However, they are forecast to rebound to above seasonal normal levels in the coming days, providing bearish signals later in the week. - 27/11/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is trading down this morning mirroring sentiment seen in gas markets. The UK carbon benchmark is neutral, with demand destruction concerns limiting upside from increased gas-for-power usage - 27/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, with stable Russian gas flows to Europe and the return of Freeport LNG in the US easing supply concerns but ongoing Russian geopolitical risk supporting the market. - 26/11/2024
Unseasonably low wind output and cooler temperatures, alongside reduced UK nuclear capacity, is offering support to prompt contracts on increased gas demand. Downside to UK carbon is limiting bullish pressure for power. - 26/11/2024
An unplanned outage at Australia's Pluto LNG facility is providing bullish signals to near-curve gas contracts. Australia mainly serves the Asian market and this could bolster competition for alternative cargoes. - 26/11/2024
Germany is set to expand its LNG regasification capacity, with two new floating LNG terminals, at a combined capacity of 8.6bcm, now due online in January. This could improve European imports. - 26/11/2024
Talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah could provide some bearish signals to UK gas and Brent Crude futures on decreased geopolitical risk in the Middle East. - 26/11/2024
Day-ahead contracts are receiving support from weather fundamentals, with wind generation and temperatures plummeting to below seasonal normal tomorrow increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 25/11/2024
The Heysham 1-2 (580MW) and Torness 2 (595MW) nuclear reactors are going offline for maintenance, reducing the UK's nuclear capacity to 53% and supporting prompt contracts on increased gas-fired demand. - 25/11/2024
The UK have secured additional cargoes for Nov-24 and Dec-24 bringing the totals up to 15 and 7, respectively. This is limiting upside along the curve as the UK continues to attract LNG cargoes. - 25/11/2024
UK gas futures continue to trade to the upside, with significant storage withdrawals in recent weeks in Europe and ongoing risk associated with Russian gas flows providing support to 2025+ contracts. - 25/11/2024
The UK gas system opened up oversupplied this morning, with the return on Karsto from an unplanned outage limiting upside to day-ahead gas prices amid sufficient pipeline supply. - 25/11/2024
UK gas futures are moving to the upside this morning after a strong rally in yesterday's trading as sanctions on Gazprombank were announced. UK and European gas markets have reached year highs. - 22/11/2024
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