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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
Analysts at the Gastech conference suggested that European gas prices are likely to remain broadly stable this winter amid ample supply, but weather, geopolitical risks, and speculative trading could still trigger spikes. - 11/09/2025
The EC’s upcoming 19th sanctions package against Russia, potentially due Friday, may include some independent Chinese oil refineries, although coordination with the US on sanctions remains weaker under Trump. - 11/09/2025
Ukraine is still struggling to secure sufficient gas stocks ahead of winter, with current levels at 23% leaving no buffer. This could support prices along the curve as the country becomes more reliant on neighbouring countries. - 11/09/2025
The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting over Russia’s violation of Polish airspace, though Russia denies responsibility for the incident. Markets remain rangebound despite geopolitical tensions. - 11/09/2025
Turkey has signed eight gas supply deals securing 15 bcm for the 2026–2028 period. This could help partially offset the EU’s ongoing Russian gas phase-out, as the additional supply could help diversify European gas sources. - 11/09/2025
Recent Russian drone attacks on Ukraine entered Polish airspace, marking the first time a NATO ally has fired shots in the war. This has heightened concerns of a broader escalation, with Poland calling it an act of aggression. - 10/09/2025
Hungary has agreed a 10-year gas deal with Shell for 200 mcm/year starting Jan-2026, marking a shift to reduce reliance on Russian gas and offering bearish pressure along the curve on improving regional supply security. - 10/09/2025
The IEA forecasts a major LNG supply surge next year, the biggest since 2019, and expects 2026–2030 to mark a pivotal shift for European energy security, potentially offering bearish signals to 2026+ contracts. - 10/09/2025
UK gas futures are trading sideways this morning despite deteriorating Russia-Ukraine and Middle East geopolitical sentiment, as stable near-term fundamentals and ongoing macroeconomic conditions weigh on the market. - 10/09/2025
As summer draws to a close and UK/EU solar peaks pass, LSEG forecast models show a positive return for European wind generation from late Sep-25, which could ease reliance on gas-fired generation into winter. - 10/09/2025
A sharp rise in wind generation tomorrow is providing some bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts, with gas-for-power demand set to fall by 17 mcm/d, offsetting a slight rise in Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand. - 09/09/2025
UK gas futures rallied to the upside yesterday, supported by near-term cooler weather forecasts and Norwegian maintenance. Concerns over EU-US Russian sanctions talks also added to bullish sentiment. - 09/09/2025
US Energy Secretary warns that several EU regulations, including CBAM, CSDDD, and methane regulations, present a 'huge legal risk' for the US and could significantly threaten the ability to implement the trade deal. - 09/09/2025
Maintenance at Middle Eastern, African, and Australian LNG facilities is limiting downside to near-curve gas prices, but stable US supply and calmer Atlantic weather reducing hurricane risk are offsetting their bullish impact. - 09/09/2025
The 615MW Heysham 2-8 nuclear reactor has gone offline for maintenance, reducing capacity to 63%; however, the 595MW Hartlepool 1 reactor is due back online, though it has been on a sustained outage since April. - 09/09/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are bullish amid revised below-seasonal-normal wind generation into tomorrow, with gas consumption up 12% on DA. Norwegian maintenance continues to support prompt gas prices. - 08/09/2025
UK energy futures are bullish this morning, following Russia's largest air strike against Ukraine, which is supporting geopolitical risk, while Trump fuels speculation over further sanctions, adding to market uncertainty. - 08/09/2025
France’s FNME-CGT energy union has extended its call for strikes until at least the end of this week, impacting French nuclear and hydro output and potentially reducing power interconnector availability. - 08/09/2025
Italian gas storage levels are near 90% full, with remaining EU levels comfortably on track to meet the winter target, easing market concerns as we head into winter and limiting upside for near-curve gas contracts. - 08/09/2025
Brent Crude benchmark is pointing up this morning despite OPEC+ agreeing to raise production from Oct-25, with markets anxious over possible further US sanctions on Russia disrupting global crude flows lending support. - 08/09/2025
Temperatures in the UK and Northwest Europe have been revised cooler for much of Sep-25, potentially prompting an early onset of the heating season and providing bullish signals along the curve on increased LDZ demand. - 05/09/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are receiving bearish pressure from rising wind generation into Monday and the end of French EDF strikes, improving import prospects, though bullish signals from carbon limit further downside. - 05/09/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish after yesterday’s gains, with Trump’s looming Russia sanction threat and Putin’s comments underscoring stalled peace prospects and sustaining geopolitical risk along the curve. - 05/09/2025
The UK carbon benchmark hit close to a 2-year high in yesterday’s trading, tracking gains in the EU carbon benchmark following anticipation of closer alignment; this is also offering support to baseload futures. - 05/09/2025
EU Russian gas imports fell 12% in August due to stronger Asian LNG demand. However, easing EU storage concerns saw combined EU and UK LNG imports hit a 10-month low, though market tightness could resurface. - 05/09/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is trading bullish this morning amid forecasts of a sharp decrease in wind output into tomorrow. However, an uptick in forecasted solar generation limits upside. - 04/09/2025
UK gas future are trading neutral-bearish this morning after making some small gains in yesterday's trading. Markets continue to show a lack of clear direction, with fundamentals relatively balanced in the near-term. - 04/09/2025
European and allied leaders are set to meet Zelenskiy today to discuss security guarantees. Doubts over US backing persist, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty and sustaining market risk across European energy futures. - 04/09/2025
Germany signalled openness to expanding gas-fired capacity beyond its planned 10GW tender amid forecasts of a shortfall by 2035, which could provide some mixed signals, supporting gas demand but reducing coal reliance. - 04/09/2025
WindEurope cut its 2025 EU wind capacity forecast by 15% to 14.5 GW, citing slow permitting, grid bottlenecks, and weak policy support, highlighting continued challenges in renewable buildout. - 04/09/2025
Day ahead power contracts are neutral this morning amid weaker UK wind (~1800MW) and larger continental drops. Rising UK solar (peaking at ~1700MW) and Heysham 2-7’s expected return (615MW) are largely offsetting this. - 03/09/2025
Day ahead gas contracts are neutral-bearish this morning despite gas-for-power demand rising 11 mcm per day to 40 mcm per day tomorrow. Continued firm output from LNG facilities is limiting upside. - 03/09/2025
US LNG exports hit record a 12.8 bcm in August as Plaquemines ramped up, with Europe taking 2/3's. This is bearish for gas futures, though concerns around channel and terminal constraints limit further downside. - 03/09/2025
Oil prices are trading flat this morning despite fresh US sanctions on disguised Iranian crude and US inventory draws. Eyes are focused on the OPEC+ meeting and whether there will be any changes to output. - 03/09/2025
US utilities warn of “phantom” data centre demand risking overbuild of facilities. This could influence later-dated contracts, potentially signalling less demand from these facilities than is currently forecast. - 03/09/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is trading bearish this morning amid forecasts of a sharp increase in wind output into tomorrow. Prompt gas is neutral-bearish on reduced gas-for-power demand. - 02/09/2025
Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 has shipped its sixth cargo of the year despite sanctions, with flows to China raising concerns over the US response, though also adding bearish pressure to global LNG markets amid increased supply. - 02/09/2025
EDF has extended the life of Heysham 1 and Hartlepool to March 2028, securing 2.3 GW of capacity, around 5% of UK supply, and providing bearish sentiment to longer-dated seasonal baseload contracts. - 02/09/2025
The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) will boost transport capacity to Europe by 1.2 bcm annually from 2026, with plans to double its flows to 20 bcm by 2027, enhancing Europe’s non-Russian gas supply. - 02/09/2025
Despite bearish sentiment stemming from Russia's Arctic 2 LNG deliveries and improved supply security due to TAP, gas futures are trading neutral-bullish, continuing yesterday's technical recovery. - 02/09/2025
Day ahead energy contracts are bullish this morning amid a sharp decline in wind generation (~6000MW) and embedded solar (~1500MW). The return of Torness 2 (640MW) helps to offset some of the bullish pressure. - 01/09/2025
EDF’s 1.5 GW Chooz 2 reactor shut this weekend on low Meuse river flows, reigniting fears of prolonged French nuclear losses. Strikes in the French nuclear sector are also scheduled, lending support to prompt contracts. - 01/09/2025
UK gas futures are trading neutral-bullish this morning, continuing on from Friday's recovery after markets hit the 16-month low again this week. This could be a signal of a price reversal this week. - 01/09/2025
Asian factory activity contracted in August as US tariffs hit Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, though China bucked the trend, suggesting Chinese LNG import demand may remain resilient. - 01/09/2025
There are renewed calls for urgent transmission system upgrades amid concerns around EU grid security standards, which lag rising demand. Developments in this space will continue to provide direction to seasonal futures. - 01/09/2025
Day-ahead baseload is bearish on stronger wind and nuclear output into Monday, with Torness 1 (595MW) and Heysham 2-7 (615MW) returning to service and Torness 2 (595MW) due back. - 29/08/2025
Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 delivery to China could lift global LNG supply by 11 million tonnes (around 14,700 mcm) from 2026, providing bearish signals to 2026+ gas contracts as increased supply volumes reach the market. - 29/08/2025
Some analysts claim European gas prices have likely “bottomed out” for the year as supportive storage needs and concerns over Norwegian outage extensions maintain tight seasonal supply dynamics. - 29/08/2025
Japan’s July factory output fell 1.6% as US tariffs hit autos, while inflation slowed to 2.5%, with weaker industrial demand and slower growth prospects the first signs of tariff's impacting global macroeconomics. - 29/08/2025
Southeast Europe could face a 10% hydropower shortfall (around 5 TWh) through the this winter, which could strain supply and lend support to near curve baseload contracts. - 29/08/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is trading bearish this morning amid the expected return of Heysham 2-7 (615 MW) tomorrow. Prompt gas is bearish, in line with the near curve, despite weakening Norwegian flows. - 28/08/2025
UK gas futures are shifting down in morning trading, continuing in a downwards trend after a technical reversal following last week's rally. Macroeconomic concerns remain in focus. - 28/08/2025
Weather fundamentals into September are providing a positive outlook for the start of the heating season, with warmer temperatures and stable wind. This could mitigate some concerns around Norwegian maintenance. - 28/08/2025
UK baseload futures face downward pressure on lower household demand as Ofgem raised the Q4 energy price cap by 2% to £1755, citing higher balancing and policy costs despite stable wholesale gas prices. - 28/08/2025
Russia’s latest drone strikes on Ukrainian energy and gas infrastructure damaged key facilities in six regions, diminishing hopes of peace prospects after the Alaska summit. However, upside remains limited. - 28/08/2025
Day ahead power contracts are trading bearish amid an increase to wind generation in the UK and across much of NWE, reinforced by the expected return of Torness 1-1 (595MW) and rising solar output. - 27/08/2025
Prompt gas contracts have opened bearish this morning on reduced power sector demand and Norwegian output recovering slightly. Concerns of extensions during this period remain a supportive factor to the near-curve. - 27/08/2025
Trump’s new tariffs of up to 50% on India have kicked in today, heightening concerns over additional tariffs on buyers of Russian energy supplies and contributing to concerns over global macroeconomics. - 27/08/2025
In a sign of continued interest in nuclear developments across Europe, Sweden plan to subsidise 5GW of new nuclear capacity. Whilst mostly positive, like in France this risks sidelining growth in renewable developments. - 27/08/2025
Emerging shale developments in Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China and Algeria signal a push to replicate the US fracking boom, with vast reserves and new technology a bearish signal for contracts later in the decade. - 27/08/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is trading bullish this morning amid forecasts of sharp decline in wind output and solar generation into tomorrow. Prompt gas is neutral, but could shift up given lower Norwegian flows. - 26/08/2025
UK gas futures are trading mostly neutral-bearish this morning, retracing some of last week's strong gains. Uncertainty persists around macroeconomics and geopolitics, with gas markets reflecting this. - 26/08/2025
Ofgem approves reforms to boost demand-side flexibility, enabling aggregators wider consumer access amid rising renewable integration and could act to boost further renewable expansion in the UK. - 26/08/2025
US Treasuries and equities fell in morning trading as President Trump plans to dismiss the Fed governor, fuelling uncertainty in wider financial markets amid heightened concerns over Fed independence. - 26/08/2025
The EU’s CBAM could remove up to 432m free carbon allowances annually if extended to refinery and chemical products, tightening supply and providing bullish support for EUA prices in the long-term. - 26/08/2025
After rallying yesterday afternoon, UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, following a technical correction and supported by diminishing hopes for an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. - 22/08/2025
Russia has attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station, raising concerns of higher winter demand from neighbouring countries and compromising storage replenishment for Ukraine and Europe. - 22/08/2025
Asian LNG prices have hit a 15-month low amid reduced spot buying, easing the premium over Europe and limiting upside along the curve on reduced competition, as Europe remains an attractive destination. - 22/08/2025
The UK government has approved a record 16.1GW of new renewable capacity, improving sentiment around renewable growth, which could offer some bearish signals to further-dated contracts, though challenges remain. - 22/08/2025
Several UK nuclear reactor outages have been extended, keeping capacity constrained to 45% throughout next week and offering support to prompt energy contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. - 22/08/2025
Israel has taken its first steps in a military operation in Gaza City, approving settlement plans to erase the idea of a Palestinian state, stoking fears of wider unrest in the region and offering some bullish signals along the curve. - 21/08/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, retracing from recent lows, as Russia claims Ukraine security guarantees are a non-starter without their involvement, reinforcing concerns over longer-term peace prospects. - 21/08/2025
Day-ahead baseload prices are supported by lower wind output. Meanwhile, absent LNG arrivals to the UK and upcoming Norwegian maintenance are providing bullish pressure to the near-curve on a tighter supply balance. - 21/08/2025
The US Federal Reserve’s annual symposium begins today, with markets anticipating a rate cut in Sep-25, while recent data from India and Australia suggest US tariffs continue to weigh on global trade and growth. - 21/08/2025
The Brent crude benchmark edged up this morning, driven by a fall in US crude inventories and stronger demand signals in the US, with uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace efforts also lending support. - 21/08/2025
Growing competition for US natural gas from domestic power firms and LNG exporters could drive up prices and reduce the global competitiveness of US LNG, potentially offering some bullish signals for 2027+ contracts. - 20/08/2025
UK energy futures remain neutral-bullish as the market awaits clarity on RUS–UKR peace prospects, with the US and NATO beginning security guarantee plans, though progress remains hindered by Russia’s stance on NATO. - 20/08/2025
The US is hiking steel and aluminium tariffs on more than 400 derivative products to 50%, which will take effect immediately, disrupting global supply chains and likely weighing on macroeconomic outlooks. - 20/08/2025
Wind generation is set to decline tomorrow, supporting day-ahead baseload prices, though increased solar output limits further upside. Ongoing mid-range storage injections also curb downside for prompt gas contracts. - 20/08/2025
European storage levels are on track to reach 84% by the end of the summer season, above the 80% target and improving winter supply prospects, though still 10% below previous years, leaving conditions tight. - 20/08/2025
UK energy futures are neutral-bullish as they weigh possible talks between Russia and Ukraine following yesterday’s Trump–Zelenskiy meeting. Meanwhile, some support is coming from the announced La Niña watch for winter. - 19/08/2025
NOAA’s forecast of a transition to El Niño into 2026 is offering bullish signals to Summer-26 contracts on prospects of extreme temperatures, raising the likelihood of European heatwaves and higher US hurricane risk. - 19/08/2025
Hamas have agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal with Israel, Egyptian sources state, though Israel has not yet responded, creating uncertainty in the Middle East amid concerns over its plans to seize control of Gaza City. - 19/08/2025
Several maintenance outages in UK domestic gas production through August, along with upcoming Norwegian maintenance, are supporting prompt gas contracts, with potential extensions adding upside risk to futures. - 19/08/2025
Russian oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary have been halted via the Druzhba pipeline over suspected Ukrainian attack, though Ukraine neither confirm nor deny the attack, offering some support to Brent crude pricing. - 19/08/2025
UK gas futures are trading neutral-bullish this morning after prices hit a 18-month low on Friday on diminishing RUS-UKR geopolitical risk. Markets await further direction following talks between Trump and Zelenskiy today. - 18/08/2025
Trump has reneged on his threat of further sanctions on Russia, alleviating some short-term bullish risk. However, his erratic policy reversals and the remaining 25% additional tariff on India have left markets cautious. - 18/08/2025
The 580MW Heysham 1-1 and the 615MW Heysham 2-7 nuclear outages have been extended by 11 and 4 days respectively, keeping capacity constrained at 45% and offering support to prompt energy prices. - 18/08/2025
La Niña weather conditions look to be developing for the Winter-25 period, indicating colder weather risk and prospects of sharp variance in wind output, offering bullish signals to the front three seasonal energy contracts. - 18/08/2025
Rising wind generation into tomorrow is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices, while unplanned Norwegian maintenance and lower domestic output is offering support prompt gas. - 18/08/2025
Baseload power contracts are bullish as wind generation falls sharply across NWE and moderately in the UK into Monday. However, the return of Heysham 1-1 (580MW) and 2 French reactors (1820MW) limits upside. - 15/08/2025
Near-curve and seasonal gas contracts are trading neutral-bearish, with markets trading close to the lowest levels in 2025 on an improved fundamental picture and ongoing economic weakness across Europe. - 15/08/2025
Near-curve and front-season gas fell around 1-2% yesterday on news that European storage is on track to reach 88% by 01-Nov, aided by strong US LNG flows and an improved weather outlook across Europe. - 15/08/2025
Markets are likely to remain responsive to US-Russia peace talks in Alaska today, with discussions to involve the lifting of Russian sanctions. Trump is also planning follow-up discussions with Zelenskiy next week. - 15/08/2025
Centrica’s £1.66bn Grain LNG acquisition signals reduced appetite to invest in Rough storage, supporting seasonal contracts amid reduced supply security and heightened risk during periods of peak demand. - 15/08/2025
Day-ahead power contracts are trading bearish amid forecasts of a sharp increase in solar output into tomorrow, whilst cooler Continental temperatures reduces power-for-cooling demand and fossil fuel reliance. - 14/08/2025
French spot power markets face bullish pressure from EDF extending heat-related nuclear curtailments to 2.6 GW amid high river temperatures and maintenance. This continues to restrict imports to the UK. - 14/08/2025
UK GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2, exceeding forecasts of 0.1%, goes some way towards mitigating UK economic concerns and supporting near-term power and gas futures contracts. - 14/08/2025
US LNG exports have risen 22% year-to-date, driven by increasing European demand. This continues to provide bearish signals along the curve, improving Europe's gas supply outlook. - 14/08/2025
EU carbon is trading neutral-bearish this morning on improving fundamentals on the Continent, though net speculative long EUA positions surged to a 4.5-month high of 28.9m allowances, limiting downside. - 14/08/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are trading neutral to bullish amid a decline in solar into tomorrow, whilst warm Continental temperatures maintain power-for-cooling demand. Increasing wind output is limiting the upside. - 13/08/2025
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