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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
The return of the Heysham 1-1 (580MW) and Hartlepool 2 (595MW) nuclear reactors have boosted UK capacity to 81%, offering some bearish pressure to prompt contracts on reduced demand for gas-fired generation. - 24/03/2025
Near-curve and closer-dated seasonal contracts are bearish this morning, retracing some of Friday's gains, amid ongoing talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia to advance ceasefire efforts in Ukraine. - 24/03/2025
Weak wind output into tomorrow is limiting downside to day-ahead baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Meanwhile warmer temperatures are reducing household heating demand. - 24/03/2025
Storage concerns persist with NWE levels at 26% full, down 31% from last year, while Ukraine's storage hits record lows. This is limiting downside along the curve amid ongoing market tightness. - 24/03/2025
Asian spot LNG prices remain near a three-month low due to ample supply, milder weather, and strong demand for contracted LNG, reducing competition for EU buyers as they seek to avoid high spot prices. - 24/03/2025
UK and European energy futures are rallying this morning on news of an attack on the Sudzha gas pipeline. This has reaffirmed the bullish trend stemming from concerns over RUS-UKR peace. - 21/03/2025
A revisions to 45d temperature forecasts is providing some support this morning, with late March and into April forecasted colder. This is likely to place further strain on already weak European gas storage. - 21/03/2025
Feedgas into US LNG terminals is being maintained at the highest levels in 5 years, a positive signal for supply that could help to limit some of the upside from geopolitical and storage concerns. - 21/03/2025
The Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor (595MW) is due to return to service today, after being extended from 19-Mar, which could mitigate some of the reduction in wind output into next week. - 21/03/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing up this morning, with wind sharply so, driven by a large drop in wind output over the weekend combined with cooler temperatures. - 21/03/2025
A sharp climb in wind generation and a further rise in temperatures into tomorrow is providing some bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts on reduced gas-for-power and heating demand. - 20/03/2025
The UK has secured another 2 cargoes for Mar-25 delivery, bringing the total to 22. If all are delivered, this would see Q1-25 deliveries up 120% on Q1-24 levels, a strong supply improvement. - 20/03/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bullish this morning after climbing strongly in yesterday's trading on the back of the limited ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This remains supportive into today. - 20/03/2025
UK and EU carbon markets are trading sideways this morning after climbing again in yesterday's trading. This continues to lend support to UK baseload, adding to the bullish pressure from gas. - 20/03/2025
The conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has resumed, with few signs of abating in the near-term, adding to the geopolitical risk already being priced into markets from RUS-UKR. - 20/03/2025
Trump and Putin's talks yesterday have reignited concerns that a peace arrangement between Russia and Ukraine may be difficult to achieve, providing bullish signals across the curve to UK energy. - 19/03/2025
Temperature and wind forecasts for the end of March and start of April have worsened, providing some support to near curve and 2025 seasonal gas contracts on the potential for further strain on storage. - 19/03/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is pointing up this morning, taking direction from 18 mcm/d drop in Norwegian gas flows today and developments impacting futures, despite warming temperatures. - 19/03/2025
The benchmark UK and EU carbon contracts are moving up this morning, driven by a rally in gas pricing. This has offset any potential bearish signals from UK ETS auctions today. - 19/03/2025
Two additional LNG cargoes have been secured for Mar-25, bringing the total to 20, whilst 2 are scheduled for Apr-25. A shift to parity with Asian pricing is making Europe an attractive destination. - 19/03/2025
Day-ahead gas is receiving bearish signals from warming temperatures, but a sharp drop in wind generation is limiting downside whilst also providing strong support to prompt baseload pricing. - 18/03/2025
Closer-dated seasonal gas contracts are neutral-bearish this morning on improved weather fundamentals for March and April, a factor that also contributed to yesterday's pull back. - 18/03/2025
UK gas futures are likely to take some direction from the results of the talks between Trump and Putin this morning, with some resumption in Russian gas flows expected as part of a peace deal. - 18/03/2025
Some geopolitical risk is emanating from the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses and US ramp up attacks on Houthi's, though this is offset by positive RUS-UKR developments. - 18/03/2025
European gas storage has fallen below 35%. This tightness continues to provide a limit to downside for 2025 gas contracts, with contracts struggling to significantly break past 100 p/therm. - 18/03/2025
Prompt contracts could show some mixed price action this week, with temperatures recovering around midweek after declining near the start and wind output volatile but mostly below the seasonal norms. - 17/03/2025
A draft EU document proposes flexible gas storage targets, making intermediate goals voluntary and the 90% target a variable range (Oct 1-Dec 1) to ease buying pressure along the curve and prevent market distortion. - 17/03/2025
Uncertainty over whether US President Trump will leverage LNG as a political tool against Europe is raising concerns around Europe's reliance on US energy and could lend some support along the curve. - 17/03/2025
Asian spot LNG prices have hit a 3-month low amid persistent muted demand in the region. This could provide some bearish signals to near-curve prices on reduced competition for the UK and Europe to secure cargoes. - 17/03/2025
ICE Futures Europe has announced that trading in Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures and Options contracts will be temporarily halted. The suspension could disrupt market liquidity, price discovery, and hedging strategies. - 17/03/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning after declining in yesterday's trading, moving close to levels seen on Monday. This week, markets have stayed rangebound, fluctuating on changing sentiment around a return of Russian gas. - 14/03/2025
Despite Asian LNG prices trading at a premium to European prices, cargoes are continuing to be secured, though it has slowed down. The UK is scheduled to receive 20 in Mar-25, a 200% increase year-on-year. - 14/03/2025
There have been some forecasts from meteorologists than the La Nina weather pattern will transition to neutral conditions next month and persist over summer. This could improve European renewable output and provide some bearish signals. - 14/03/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are showing divergent price action this morning. Improved wind output into tomorrow is providing downside to power, whilst gas is up on strong injection demand despite warmer temperatures. - 14/03/2025
EU carbon is moving to the downside in morning trading, driven by a pull back in gas markets. UK carbon continues to trend in line with the EU market on the potential for linkage between the two schemes. - 14/03/2025
Wind and temperatures are dropping off into tomorrow, providing bullish signals to day-ahead energy contracts. The picture is similar across Northwest Europe which could increase the difficulty in securing imports. - 13/03/2025
The near curve and front two seasonal gas contracts are making gains this morning after a decline in yesterday's trading. Concerns over Russia-Ukraine peace remain at the forefront as Russia won't agree without certain conditions. - 13/03/2025
The US has gone ahead with tariffs on the EU's steel and aluminium sectors, and are considering further sanctions on Canada. This is raising concerns around stifled economic activity and could be a bearish signal to later-dated contracts. - 13/03/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up this morning after rising sharply in yesterday's trading. The upside was driven by headlines reaffirming plans to go ahead with UK-EU ETS linkage and is lending to support to baseload futures. - 13/03/2025
UK storage injections are forecast to rise today, potentially reducing some of the summer buying pressure. Since the 20-Feb, UK storage has risen around 36% on consistent injections, though the EU continues to withdraw. - 13/03/2025
Rising gas-for-power and heating demand, driven by declining wind generation and unseasonably low temperatures, is supporting day-ahead energy contracts, though NBP's premium over TTF is limiting further upside. - 12/03/2025
After climbing in yesterday afternoon's trading amid concerns over weather fundamentals into April, UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning awaiting news of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. - 12/03/2025
Strong interest in Greece's Revithoussa LNG terminal indicates sustained EU demand until 2030 amid reduced reliance on Russian gas, providing bullish pressure to prices along the curve due to ongoing demand signals. - 12/03/2025
At a CERAWeek conference, ministers and executives have reiterated that European buyers are unlikely to return to Russian gas flows even if sanctions are lifted, prioritising energy security and supply diversification. - 12/03/2025
The Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion has produced its first LNG cargo, signalling ongoing increases in US export capacity and limiting upside for 2025+ contracts on improving supply fundamentals - 12/03/2025
Due to rising costs, several US LNG exporters are seeking to renegotiate higher prices with buyers, which could weaken the competitive edge of US LNG, offering bullish signals along the curve on higher import fees. - 11/03/2025
2026+ power futures are diverging from their gas counterparts this morning, with the UK’s Planning and Infrastructure Bill poised to fast-track grid connections, boosting renewables and reducing reliance on gas-fired generation. - 11/03/2025
The UK has secured an additional 3 LNG cargoes for Mar-25 and 1 has been secured for Apr-25, bringing the totals to 18 and 1 respectively, helping to limit upside to near-curve contracts on signs of continued strong supply. - 11/03/2025
Unfavourable weather fundamentals are offering support to day-ahead energy contracts as declining wind output and falling temperatures increase reliance on gas-fired generation and raise household heating demand. - 11/03/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, rebounding back to the recent 100p/therm support level. Geopolitics and revisions to forecasts showing weaker wind output and cooler temperatures into April are supportive. - 11/03/2025
EU LNG prices hit a 5-month low amid strong supply. Europe remains well-stocked, with storage refilling expected to keep prices above Asia's for most of the year, though summer restocking in Asia may tighten markets. - 10/03/2025
Slowing seasonal gas withdrawals, increased LNG supply, and an unwinding of long positions due to storage target speculation, driven by rising US output and weak Chinese demand, is limiting the upside along the curve. - 10/03/2025
Temperatures have been forecast colder throughout the week, alongside declining wind output to below seasonal levels, offering support to day-ahead contracts on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. - 10/03/2025
Prompt contracts are receiving bullish pressure from declining Norwegian flows to the UK as maintenance impacts supply, combined with lower LNG sendout and storage injections tightening supply. - 10/03/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, with news of ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas facilities and a Russian advance into key Ukrainian gas pipeline territory spurring upside. - 10/03/2025
The 595MW Torness 1 nuclear reactor is scheduled to go offline today for a month, reducing UK nuclear capacity to 63%, this is offering support to prompt contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. - 07/03/2025
To ensure adequate storage levels for winter supply, Ukraine will need to import a minimum of 3-5bcm of gas, with storage levels currently at just 4.7%, limiting downside along the curve amid ongoing market tightness. - 07/03/2025
UK gas futures are rebounding from recent downside after breaking through the recent 100 p/therm support level, with investment funds decreasing net long positions in the TTF by over 22% in the last week. - 07/03/2025
Declining wind output, falling temperatures, and Norwegian maintenance into Monday are providing support to prompt gas contracts, though day-ahead baseload is bucking the trend and moving down. - 07/03/2025
US LNG operator Venture Global have significantly raised its LNG export expectations for 2025, signalling an increase in supply that may ease global gas concerns, offering some bearish signals to UK gas futures. - 07/03/2025
A sharp drop in wind generation, taking it below seasonal levels, is pushing up day-ahead prices on increased gas-for-power demand. Bearish signals from warmer temperatures are limited by strong storage injections. - 06/03/2025
The European Commission (EC) has announced LNG storage can count toward storage targets, and the 90% target may be extended to 01-Dec under exceptional circumstances, offering some bearish signals along the curve. - 06/03/2025
For a second time, the EC has delayed plans to phase out Russian energy imports, highlighting hesitation and a lack of consensus among members in cutting off Russian energy. This is providing a limit to upside. - 06/03/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, with several contracts hovering around the recent 100 p/therm support level. Weaker wind and colder temperature forecasts into March are offering support. - 06/03/2025
Possible extensions to EU gas storage targets beyond 2025 are providing bullish pressure on Summer-26+ contracts, fuelled by expectations of sustained demand for gas storage and ongoing market tightness. - 06/03/2025
US natural gas futures have risen 8% due to record LNG exports and higher demand forecasts over the next two weeks, providing bullish pressure along the curve due to higher import costs for Europe. - 05/03/2025
Trump's new trade war, imposing tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, has triggered uncertainty in the market and heightened volatility; however, it could likely increase US LNG imports by Europe. - 05/03/2025
Despite reports around Nord Stream 2, Germany are not in talks with Russia over a revival, signalling on ongoing push for energy independence from Russia and a drive to seek alternative energy security. - 05/03/2025
UK gas futures are neutral to bullish this morning, driven by Russia-Ukraine uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs, though improved weather forecasts into mid-March are limiting further upside. - 05/03/2025
Weather fundamentals remain positive into tomorrow on above seasonal normal wind output and warmer temperatures limiting upside to day-ahead energy contracts. Storage injections offer support. - 05/03/2025
An uptick in wind generation into tomorrow, reducing gas-for-power demand, and downside to the UK carbon benchmark are providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts. - 04/03./2025
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Mar-25, bringing the total to 15. March-25 scheduled deliveries are up 114% year-on-year, offering downside to near-curve contracts amid improving supply conditions. - 04/03./2025
Despite a cold snap in the region, Asian spot buying remains muted amid high stock levels and importers remaining on the sidelines, providing bearish signals along the curve on easing supply competition. - 04/03./2025
UK gas futures are bearish this morning after a strong rally yesterday on concerns of damage to Turkstream infrastructure by Ukrainian attacks. Trump pausing US military aid to Ukraine may force Ukraine to the negotiating table. - 04/03./2025
The UK gas system opened 17 mcm oversupplied this morning, with an expected 12 mcm/d drop in Local Distribution Zone (LDZ) demand tomorrow due to rising temperatures, further loosening the supply-demand balance. - 04/03./2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing up in morning trading despite wind and power showing a recovery into tomorrow. Strong storage injection demand is raising gas demand, and by extension gas-fired premiums. - 03/03/2025
UK gas futures are pointing sharply up this morning, continuing the trend seen late last week. Concerns over Ukrainian peace talks remain at the forefront and are being exacerbated by technical signals. - 03/03/2025
EU and UK carbon are showing divergent price action this morning. The potential delay to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could be contributing to this breakdown in correlation. - 03/03/2025
Wind and temperature forecasts have been revised downwards as La Nina continues to drive cold and less windy weather, providing support to 2025 gas futures on concerns over further strain to European storage. - 03/03/2025
The current Northern Hemisphere weather pattern is showing a 66% (up from 60%) likelihood of moving from La Nina to neutral conditions in Mar- to May-25, though downside is limited by geopolitical concerns. - 03/03/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral in morning trading after a strong bull rally yesterday. Technical signals have supported speculative buying, particularly with financial institutions rebuilding long positions. - 28/02/2025
3 of the UK's Feb-25 LNG cargoes have been delayed to Mar-25, now totalling 27 and 13, respectively. Overall supply remains unchanged, though a lack of additions highlights the increased buying pressure from Asia. - 28/02/2025
Wind and temperature's are improving over the weekend, sending bearish signals to prompt contracts. However, strong demand for storage injections continues to limit any downside to prompt gas. - 28/02/2025
Norway have announced a 18.4 mcm/d outage at Hammerfest LNG from 10- to 14-Mar, whilst stronger demand out of Asia directs some cargoes eastward. This could be supportive in the near term on supply constraints. - 28/02/2025
The EU and UK carbon benchmarks are bearish this morning amid a decline in long positions by speculators, though the market is still digesting news of the EU's clean industrial deal. - 28/02/2025
UK gas futures are pointing strongly up this morning, with the 100 p/therm level acting as a support level that prices have struggled to break. Colder weather in Asia leading to gas stock depletion has bolstered the effect. - 27/02/2025
Wind and temperature forecasts for the first half of March have been revised up, beyond this the revisions are mixed. This is a positive sign for reducing storage withdrawals and provides bearish signals to UK gas futures. - 27/02/2025
Scheduled deliveries for Feb-25 have returned to 30, whilst Mar-25 has risen to 10. The UK is continuing to secure cargoes, but prices at parity with Asia could begin weigh on volumes amid colder weather in the region. - 27/02/2025
Day-ahead contracts are pointing up in morning trading, with a drop in wind output and temperatures into tomorrow supportive, whilst power interconnector flows are also diminished relative to other periods of low wind. - 27/02/2025
The UK and EU carbon benchmarks are climbing this morning, with some direction coming from gas markets and some from weaker renewable output into tomorrow raising emissions intensity of generation. - 27/02/2025
Updated wind and temperature forecasts for March show warmer and windier weather. This could reduce strain on storage and add to the recent bearish direction seen in UK gas futures, with futures down again this morning. - 26/02/2025
UK gas futures fell yesterday on news Zelenskiy is heading to Washington to negotiate a rare earth minerals deal with the US. Such a deal gives the US a vested interest in Ukrainian sovereignty and bolsters peace prospects. - 26/02/2025
Stable temperatures and a slight improvement in wind output into tomorrow are providing bearish signals to day-ahead contracts, though downside to gas is limited by storage injection demand. - 26/02/2025
UK and EU carbon markets opened neutral-bullish this morning after falling in yesterday's trading, but the upside was short-lived on favourable weather fundamentals and bearish signals from CBAM exemptions. - 26/02/2025
The EU is set to release its new energy plan today, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and bolstering renewable capacity. This could signal downside to 2027+ contracts, though concerns over US LNG reliability limit downside. - 26/02/2025
Wind and temperatures are dropping off into tomorrow, providing bullish signals to day-ahead energy contracts. Prompt baseload is trading up this morning as a result, though prompt gas is neutral-bearish. - 25/02/2025
UK mid-range storage is currently at 22% and Rough at 13%, but strong LNG imports over the past two months have limited LNG storage depletion, which currently sits at 49% and mitigates some storage concerns. - 25/02/2025
Near curve UK gas contracts are bearish this morning, with markets stabilising around current levels after the recent strong bear run, though the rising of the domestic price cap is stimulating further downside. - 25/02/2025
UK LNG deliveries for Feb-25 have fallen by 1 to 29, but Mar-25 deliveries have risen by 2 to 8. This signals the UK remains an attractive destination for cargoes and remains a limiting factor to near-term energy futures. - 25/02/2025
The UN Security Council has adopted a neutral stance on the War in Ukraine, pushed for by the US. It's assumed this stance will make it easier to broker an end to the war and could be a bearish signal to energy markets - 25/02/2025
A sharp decline in wind generation into tomorrow is pushing up day-ahead baseload prices on increased gas-for-power demand. However, above seasonal temperatures are limiting further upside on limited heating demand. - 24/02/2025
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