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The day ahead gas contracts is neutral-bearish today, with the significant Norwegian maintenance coming to an end this weekend, offsetting the decrease in wind output which is lending support to prompt baseload. - 04/04/2025
President Trump's tariffs have had a drastic effect on most trading markets, with the uncertainty of the repercussions reducing trading activity in wider financial markets, potentially limiting further price moves. - 04/04/2025
UK gas futures and Brent crude are pointing down this morning after a significant drop in yesterday's trading stimulated by concerns about a global recession and the drop in value of the Dollar. - 04/04/2025
An additional LNG cargo for Apr-25 delivery has been secured from Qatar, bringing the total to 6 and further adding to the overall bearish sentiment in the near curve. - 04/04/2025
Temperature forecasts to mid-April have been revised warmer for a second day in a row, potentially stimulating further bearish signals to 2025 energy contracts on reduced storage risk. - 04/04/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is bearish this morning, with temperatures forecasted to rise into tomorrow. Prompt baseload is making gains this morning on decreasing wind output. - 03/04/2025
UK gas futures are bearish after neutral-bearish trading yesterday, with revisions to temperature forecasts for the next few weeks showing warmer temperatures, reducing the likelihood of storage depletion. - 03/04/2025
Despite the pullback in gas futures, downside continues to be limited by ongoing concerns around RUS-UKR, with the Trump administration recently highlighting Russian unwillingness to cooperate as a key hurdle. - 03/04/2025
Trump has enforced aggressive tariff's, escalating trade war concerns with Asia and Europe, providing bearish signals to carbon and crude oil markets on the potential for stifled economic activity. - 03/04/2025
2026+ seasonal baseload futures are moving to the upside in morning trading, with the potential for reciprocal EU tariff's on the US to impact the cost of materials crucial for the energy transition, like steel. - 03/04/2025
Day ahead power is bearish today, with temperatures forecasted to rise into tomorrow and Torness 1 (595MW) returning a day early, offsetting upside from declining wind output. - 02/04/2025
UK gas futures are mixed-neutral this morning after climbing in yesterday's trading amid geopolitical risk from Russia's unwillingness to accept US ideas on Ukraine and cooler weather forecasts for Europe. - 02/04/2025
President Trump is set to announce new tariffs today, with concerns over stifled economic activity in Europe providing bearish signals to European equities and by extension carbon markets. - 02/04/2025
Europe could announce plans for further US LNG purchases to mitigate the tariff impact, sending mixed signals along the curve on better supply prospects but greater reliance on more costly LNG. - 02/04/2025
Gassco are expecting to increase their gas exports this summer potentially providing some bearish signals on improved prospects for filling storage this summer and reduced competition for LNG with Asia. - 02/04/2025
The day-ahead power contract are bearish this morning, with the return of the Heysham 1-1 (580MW) nuclear reactor and wind forecast to rise above seasonal norms into tomorrow. - 01/04/2025
The prompt gas contract is making gains this morning on the back of a start in heavy Norwegian maintenance tomorrow, with flows expected to drop a further 67 mcm/d to 82 mcm/d. - 01/04/2025
Gas futures are neutral to neutral-bullish after rising in yesterday's trading, driven by continued uncertainty surrounding RUS-UKR peace talks and signs of maintenance at a Qatari LNG facility. - 01/04/2025
The UK has secured another LNG cargo for April delivery, bringing the total to 5. This is in line with last year's volume and may provide a limit to the upside to gas futures on improved supply. - 01/04/2025
The benchmark UK and EU carbon contracts are moving to the upside this morning, retracing some of last week's gains on the back of positive sentiment around European equities. - 01/04/2025
Day ahead power prices are bearish on increasing wind output into tomorrow and Heysham 1-1 (585MW) coming back online after a restart. Downside is limited by IFA1 (1GW) going offline for maintenance. - 31/03/2025
The uncertainty around the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is further reinforced by Trump's recent statement that he intends to impose secondary tariffs on Russian gas if no ceasefire is agreed. - 31/03/2025
The EU's ban on re-exporting Russian LNG via EU ports has come into effect, opening the EU to receive more Russian LNG that would've been sent to Asia, providing some bearish signals to gas futures. - 31/03/2025
Temperatures this week are forecast above seasonal normal levels, limiting strain on storage and potentially leaving capacity for further injections. This is limited by Norwegian gas outages. - 31/03/2025
Planned unavailability of Aasta Hansteen and Nyhamna will result in 82mcm/d going offline from 02-Apr to 06-Apr, and 28 mcm/d offline for the 07-Apr, lending support to gas prices. - 31/03/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bearish this morning, continuing to trade lower than the start of the week amid improvements to fundamentals despite uncertainty around RUS-UKR peace. - 28/03/2025
Revisions to 45d weather forecasts are providing bearish signals to near curve and 2025 seasonal gas contracts on warmer conditions for the start of April, limiting strain on gas storage. - 28/03/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is trading up this morning after pulling back in yesterday's trading. This is lending to support to seasonal power futures which are moving to the upside in morning trading. - 28/03/2025
Day-ahead baseload is strongly bullish this morning amid a sharp drop in wind output over the weekend. Prompt gas is also trading up, with warmer temperatures being offset by increased gas-fired demand. - 28/03/2025
The Heysham 1-1 (580MW) nuclear reactor has had it's outage shortened and should return today, however any downwards pressure to prompt is being offset by the Hartlepool 2 (595MW) reactor going offline. - 28/03/2025
Day-ahead baseload is pointing sharply down this morning on a sharp increase in wind output into tomorrow. Prompt gas is sideways, caught between cooling temperatures and reduced gas-fired demand. - 27/03/2025
UK gas futures are pointing up in morning trading after easing slightly during yesterday's session. Concerns around RUS-UKR peace remain supportive amid the quick breakdown in ceasefire arrangements. - 27/03/2025
Fundamentals continue to limit upside from geopolitical risk, with net storage injections occurring in Europe for the first time since Oct-24 and warmer weather forecasts for the start of April suggesting a continuation. - 27/03/2025
A planned outage was announced at Heysham 1-1 (580MW) on short notice which will see UK nuclear capacity drop to 72% from today until 01-April, limiting downside to day-ahead energy contracts. - 27/03/2025
The UK has secured 2 LNG cargoes for April delivery and the EU 18, marking a significant slow down in volumes seen through Q1-25. However, prices still support imports to Europe over Asia. - 27/03/2025
A strong recovery in wind output into tomorrow is providing some bearish signals to day-ahead baseload, however downside to prompt gas is limited by a further drop in Norwegian output and cooler temperatures. - 26/03/2025
For the first time since Oct-24, Europe has seen a week of net storage injections. The movement was limited but this is a positive sign for depleted European storage and contributed to yesterday's pullback. - 26/03/2025
UK gas futures are mostly bearish this morning amid warmer April forecasts, lessened strain on European storage and some improvements in RUS-UKR peace prospects, though uncertainty limits downside. - 26/03/2025
2026 and 2027 gas futures are bullish to neutral-bullish this morning, with the EU council seeming to support a continuation of mandated storage targets despite opposition from key European economies. - 26/03/2025
2027 gas futures are likely taking some direction from uncertainty in future LNG supply due to ongoing US tariff uncertainty. This is leading LNG supply agreements to be limited to the short-term. - 26/03/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are neutral-bearish this morning, with slightly warmer temperatures and firm interconnector flows mitigating a further decline in wind output into tomorrow. - 25/03/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing down in morning trading, pulling back after the recent rally. Fundamentals are supportive, but the strong gains seen recently are likely encouraging some profit taking. - 25/03/2025
UK gas futures are bearish this morning, declining for a second day after last week's rallies. Warmer temperature forecasts and firm LNG supply are contributing to the bearish direction. - 25/03/2025
UK and European LNG supply remains firm amid weak demand from Asia, particularly China, and strong US output. Chinese imports are down 22% year-on-year in Q1-25, whilst US output is at record levels. - 25/03/2025
Ukraine and the US are meeting in Riyadh today to continue peace talks after Russia and the US met yesterday. Details of yesterday's talks won't be released yet according to a Kremlin spokesperson. - 25/03/2025
The return of the Heysham 1-1 (580MW) and Hartlepool 2 (595MW) nuclear reactors have boosted UK capacity to 81%, offering some bearish pressure to prompt contracts on reduced demand for gas-fired generation. - 24/03/2025
Near-curve and closer-dated seasonal contracts are bearish this morning, retracing some of Friday's gains, amid ongoing talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia to advance ceasefire efforts in Ukraine. - 24/03/2025
Weak wind output into tomorrow is limiting downside to day-ahead baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Meanwhile warmer temperatures are reducing household heating demand. - 24/03/2025
Storage concerns persist with NWE levels at 26% full, down 31% from last year, while Ukraine's storage hits record lows. This is limiting downside along the curve amid ongoing market tightness. - 24/03/2025
Asian spot LNG prices remain near a three-month low due to ample supply, milder weather, and strong demand for contracted LNG, reducing competition for EU buyers as they seek to avoid high spot prices. - 24/03/2025
UK and European energy futures are rallying this morning on news of an attack on the Sudzha gas pipeline. This has reaffirmed the bullish trend stemming from concerns over RUS-UKR peace. - 21/03/2025
A revisions to 45d temperature forecasts is providing some support this morning, with late March and into April forecasted colder. This is likely to place further strain on already weak European gas storage. - 21/03/2025
Feedgas into US LNG terminals is being maintained at the highest levels in 5 years, a positive signal for supply that could help to limit some of the upside from geopolitical and storage concerns. - 21/03/2025
The Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor (595MW) is due to return to service today, after being extended from 19-Mar, which could mitigate some of the reduction in wind output into next week. - 21/03/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing up this morning, with wind sharply so, driven by a large drop in wind output over the weekend combined with cooler temperatures. - 21/03/2025
A sharp climb in wind generation and a further rise in temperatures into tomorrow is providing some bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts on reduced gas-for-power and heating demand. - 20/03/2025
The UK has secured another 2 cargoes for Mar-25 delivery, bringing the total to 22. If all are delivered, this would see Q1-25 deliveries up 120% on Q1-24 levels, a strong supply improvement. - 20/03/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bullish this morning after climbing strongly in yesterday's trading on the back of the limited ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This remains supportive into today. - 20/03/2025
UK and EU carbon markets are trading sideways this morning after climbing again in yesterday's trading. This continues to lend support to UK baseload, adding to the bullish pressure from gas. - 20/03/2025
The conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas has resumed, with few signs of abating in the near-term, adding to the geopolitical risk already being priced into markets from RUS-UKR. - 20/03/2025
Trump and Putin's talks yesterday have reignited concerns that a peace arrangement between Russia and Ukraine may be difficult to achieve, providing bullish signals across the curve to UK energy. - 19/03/2025
Temperature and wind forecasts for the end of March and start of April have worsened, providing some support to near curve and 2025 seasonal gas contracts on the potential for further strain on storage. - 19/03/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is pointing up this morning, taking direction from 18 mcm/d drop in Norwegian gas flows today and developments impacting futures, despite warming temperatures. - 19/03/2025
The benchmark UK and EU carbon contracts are moving up this morning, driven by a rally in gas pricing. This has offset any potential bearish signals from UK ETS auctions today. - 19/03/2025
Two additional LNG cargoes have been secured for Mar-25, bringing the total to 20, whilst 2 are scheduled for Apr-25. A shift to parity with Asian pricing is making Europe an attractive destination. - 19/03/2025
Day-ahead gas is receiving bearish signals from warming temperatures, but a sharp drop in wind generation is limiting downside whilst also providing strong support to prompt baseload pricing. - 18/03/2025
Closer-dated seasonal gas contracts are neutral-bearish this morning on improved weather fundamentals for March and April, a factor that also contributed to yesterday's pull back. - 18/03/2025
UK gas futures are likely to take some direction from the results of the talks between Trump and Putin this morning, with some resumption in Russian gas flows expected as part of a peace deal. - 18/03/2025
Some geopolitical risk is emanating from the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapses and US ramp up attacks on Houthi's, though this is offset by positive RUS-UKR developments. - 18/03/2025
European gas storage has fallen below 35%. This tightness continues to provide a limit to downside for 2025 gas contracts, with contracts struggling to significantly break past 100 p/therm. - 18/03/2025
Prompt contracts could show some mixed price action this week, with temperatures recovering around midweek after declining near the start and wind output volatile but mostly below the seasonal norms. - 17/03/2025
A draft EU document proposes flexible gas storage targets, making intermediate goals voluntary and the 90% target a variable range (Oct 1-Dec 1) to ease buying pressure along the curve and prevent market distortion. - 17/03/2025
Uncertainty over whether US President Trump will leverage LNG as a political tool against Europe is raising concerns around Europe's reliance on US energy and could lend some support along the curve. - 17/03/2025
Asian spot LNG prices have hit a 3-month low amid persistent muted demand in the region. This could provide some bearish signals to near-curve prices on reduced competition for the UK and Europe to secure cargoes. - 17/03/2025
ICE Futures Europe has announced that trading in Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures and Options contracts will be temporarily halted. The suspension could disrupt market liquidity, price discovery, and hedging strategies. - 17/03/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning after declining in yesterday's trading, moving close to levels seen on Monday. This week, markets have stayed rangebound, fluctuating on changing sentiment around a return of Russian gas. - 14/03/2025
Despite Asian LNG prices trading at a premium to European prices, cargoes are continuing to be secured, though it has slowed down. The UK is scheduled to receive 20 in Mar-25, a 200% increase year-on-year. - 14/03/2025
There have been some forecasts from meteorologists than the La Nina weather pattern will transition to neutral conditions next month and persist over summer. This could improve European renewable output and provide some bearish signals. - 14/03/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are showing divergent price action this morning. Improved wind output into tomorrow is providing downside to power, whilst gas is up on strong injection demand despite warmer temperatures. - 14/03/2025
EU carbon is moving to the downside in morning trading, driven by a pull back in gas markets. UK carbon continues to trend in line with the EU market on the potential for linkage between the two schemes. - 14/03/2025
Wind and temperatures are dropping off into tomorrow, providing bullish signals to day-ahead energy contracts. The picture is similar across Northwest Europe which could increase the difficulty in securing imports. - 13/03/2025
The near curve and front two seasonal gas contracts are making gains this morning after a decline in yesterday's trading. Concerns over Russia-Ukraine peace remain at the forefront as Russia won't agree without certain conditions. - 13/03/2025
The US has gone ahead with tariffs on the EU's steel and aluminium sectors, and are considering further sanctions on Canada. This is raising concerns around stifled economic activity and could be a bearish signal to later-dated contracts. - 13/03/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up this morning after rising sharply in yesterday's trading. The upside was driven by headlines reaffirming plans to go ahead with UK-EU ETS linkage and is lending to support to baseload futures. - 13/03/2025
UK storage injections are forecast to rise today, potentially reducing some of the summer buying pressure. Since the 20-Feb, UK storage has risen around 36% on consistent injections, though the EU continues to withdraw. - 13/03/2025
Rising gas-for-power and heating demand, driven by declining wind generation and unseasonably low temperatures, is supporting day-ahead energy contracts, though NBP's premium over TTF is limiting further upside. - 12/03/2025
After climbing in yesterday afternoon's trading amid concerns over weather fundamentals into April, UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning awaiting news of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. - 12/03/2025
Strong interest in Greece's Revithoussa LNG terminal indicates sustained EU demand until 2030 amid reduced reliance on Russian gas, providing bullish pressure to prices along the curve due to ongoing demand signals. - 12/03/2025
At a CERAWeek conference, ministers and executives have reiterated that European buyers are unlikely to return to Russian gas flows even if sanctions are lifted, prioritising energy security and supply diversification. - 12/03/2025
The Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion has produced its first LNG cargo, signalling ongoing increases in US export capacity and limiting upside for 2025+ contracts on improving supply fundamentals - 12/03/2025
Due to rising costs, several US LNG exporters are seeking to renegotiate higher prices with buyers, which could weaken the competitive edge of US LNG, offering bullish signals along the curve on higher import fees. - 11/03/2025
2026+ power futures are diverging from their gas counterparts this morning, with the UK’s Planning and Infrastructure Bill poised to fast-track grid connections, boosting renewables and reducing reliance on gas-fired generation. - 11/03/2025
The UK has secured an additional 3 LNG cargoes for Mar-25 and 1 has been secured for Apr-25, bringing the totals to 18 and 1 respectively, helping to limit upside to near-curve contracts on signs of continued strong supply. - 11/03/2025
Unfavourable weather fundamentals are offering support to day-ahead energy contracts as declining wind output and falling temperatures increase reliance on gas-fired generation and raise household heating demand. - 11/03/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, rebounding back to the recent 100p/therm support level. Geopolitics and revisions to forecasts showing weaker wind output and cooler temperatures into April are supportive. - 11/03/2025
EU LNG prices hit a 5-month low amid strong supply. Europe remains well-stocked, with storage refilling expected to keep prices above Asia's for most of the year, though summer restocking in Asia may tighten markets. - 10/03/2025
Slowing seasonal gas withdrawals, increased LNG supply, and an unwinding of long positions due to storage target speculation, driven by rising US output and weak Chinese demand, is limiting the upside along the curve. - 10/03/2025
Temperatures have been forecast colder throughout the week, alongside declining wind output to below seasonal levels, offering support to day-ahead contracts on increased gas-for-power and heating demand. - 10/03/2025
Prompt contracts are receiving bullish pressure from declining Norwegian flows to the UK as maintenance impacts supply, combined with lower LNG sendout and storage injections tightening supply. - 10/03/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, with news of ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas facilities and a Russian advance into key Ukrainian gas pipeline territory spurring upside. - 10/03/2025
The 595MW Torness 1 nuclear reactor is scheduled to go offline today for a month, reducing UK nuclear capacity to 63%, this is offering support to prompt contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. - 07/03/2025
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