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UK gas futures are moving to the upside this morning after a strong rally in yesterday's trading as sanctions on Gazprombank were announced. UK and European gas markets have reached year highs. - 22/11/2024
European storage has seen significant storage withdrawals in recent weeks, falling to under 90%, around 10% lower than this time last year. This is providing support to UK energy futures. - 22/11/2024
The Asian benchmark gas price, JKM, rallied yesterday on the announcement of sanctions. This has eroded the premium of European over Asian gas prices and could increase difficulty to secure LNG for Europe. - 22/11/2024
Weather fundamentals are providing bearish signals to prompt contracts, with wind generation and temperatures forecast to rise over the weekend. An expansion at the Norwegian Karsto outage to 19mcm/d is supportive. - 22/11/2024
The restart date for the outage at the Sizewell B-2 (630MW) nuclear reactor has been pushed back to 03-Dec from 27-Nov, exacerbating tightness in UK baseload markets near the end of this month and into December. - 22/11/2024
Temperatures in the UK are forecast to stage a recovery over the coming few days, providing bearish signals to prompt contracts. The most recent revision to 46d weather forecast shows warmer temperatures. - 21/11/2024
UK gas futures are moving to the upside in morning trading despite an improved fundamental picture, with geopolitical risk from Russia and concerns over Germany's cross-border levy offering support. - 21/11/2024
Wind generation is falling slightly into tomorrow, offering support to prompt energy contracts. It is forecast to rise sharply from tomorrow though, offering some relief to prices through the weekend and early next week. - 21/11/2024
An unplanned outage at the Norwegian Karsto facility is removing 15 mcm/d of output capacity. The outage is of uncertain duration, supporting day-ahead gas and providing bullish sentiment to futures. - 21/11/2024
The UK has lost one of its cargoes secured for Nov-24, with the total dropping to 13. However, 3 additional cargoes have been secured for Dec-24, bringing the total to 6. - 21/11/2024
The most recent 45d weather forecast has revised temperatures up for the remainder of November and most of December, providing bearish signals to gas futures on expectations of less storage withdrawals. - 20/11/2024
European storage levels have fallen from 95% to slightly over 91% in recent weeks due to cooler temperatures. This time last year they sat around 96% and the lower volumes continue to provide support to energy futures. - 20/11/2024
Wind generation is forecast to fall into tomorrow, supporting day-ahead energy contracts on increased gas-fired demand. Temperatures are falling slightly but further upside to prompt gas is limited by already high prices. - 20/11/2024
The UK has secured an additional cargo for Nov-24, bringing the count to 14, as high prices continue to make Europe an attractive destination. This is helping to limit further upside to futures. - 20/11/2024
Wind generation has been forecast slightly better for Nov- and Dec-24 in the most recent revision offering bearish signals to near curve UK energy futures and mitigating some concerns around tight nuclear in Dec-24 - 20/11/2024
The S-25 gas future continues to trade at a premium to W-25, an uncommon dynamic. This reflects the expectation of heightened LNG demand in Asia and Europe next year to fill storage ahead of winter. - 19/11/2024
Near curve gas futures are trading sideways this morning but could be exposed to bearish pressure today on a warmer forecast for Nov- and Dec-24 in the UK and NWE and easing concerns over Russian gas flows. - 19/11/2024
The UK has now secured 13 cargoes for Nov-24, with 7 already delivered or due today and 6 due in coming weeks. 3 have been secured for Dec-24. This is limiting any upside to near curve gas contracts. - 19/11/2024
Day-ahead energy contracts are taking direction from weather fundamentals. Gas is up on cooler temperatures into tomorrow, baseload is down on a rise in wind generation. Firm imports are also limiting gas-fired demand. - 19/11/2024
Hezbollah and Lebanon have agreed to a proposal for a ceasefire by the US administration. Israel is yet to comment but it improves prospects for a cooling down of tensions in the region. - 19/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning. Russian gas flows to OMV halted on Saturday, but Russian flows through Sudzha have maintained previous levels as other buyers pick up the volume. - 18/11/2024
Downside to futures markets is being limited by concerns surrounding the conflict between Russia-Ukraine, with the US allowing Ukraine to strike into Russia. - 18/11/2024
The day-ahead gas contract is moving to the upside this morning, with falling temperatures supportive. Prompt baseload is moving to the downside, driven by rising wind generation. - 18/11/2024
The UK has secured 12 LNG cargoes for Nov-24 and 2 for Dec-24, with the recent rise in UK pricing encouraging imports over Asia and providing a limit to any upside across the near curve. - 18/11/2024
Recent damage to Ukrainian power infrastructure could impact imports during the winter and is offering supporting to the front three months. Imports remain stable in the near-term, however. - 18/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish in morning trading, with temperatures being revised slightly warmer for December and buying pressure easing as markets reach year highs amid concerns over an early halt to Russian gas flows. - 15/11/2024
The prompt UK baseload contract is pointing marginally up in morning trading. Wind generation is forecast to rise into Monday but bearish pressure is being offset by an outage at the Heysham 2-8 (615MW) reactor. - 15/11/2024
The day-ahead gas contract is neutral-bearish this morning, with cooler temperatures into Monday being offset by improved prospects for Norwegian flows as an outage at the Troll gas field is due to end today. - 15/11/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark is falling in morning trading. IEA have forecasted lower oil demand growth in 2025, whilst supply is expected to remain strong even with OPEC+ production cuts. - 15/11/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is falling in morning trading, spurred by downside to gas markets and improved renewable output in Germany and France. The unwinding of short positions by speculators is limiting downside - 15/11/2024
The UK has secured an additional LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) cargo for Nov-24, bringing the total count to 9. This could limit upside to the near curve on improved supply prospects. - 14/11/2024
UK and European gas prices are nearing or at market highs for the year amid concerns of an early halt to Russian flows following Austrian firm OMV being awarded €230m in arbitration with Gazprom over irregular supplies. - 14/11/2024
Positive sentiment around an Azeri gas deal, that see Russian flows through Ukraine continue, is fading this morning as Slovakia signs a deal directly with Azerbaijan, signalling they are trying to diversify supply. - 14/11/2024
UK gas futures continue to receive support from weather fundamentals, with temperature forecasts cooler again and storage withdrawals due to continue today. An outage at the Troll gas field is also adding to tightness. - 14/11/2024
The prompt baseload contract is down this morning amid rising wind generation and the return of the Eleclink interconnector (1GW) tomorrow. Prompt gas is up on a tighter system due to the Troll outage and high gas-fired demand. - 14/11/2024
UK gas futures are moving to the downside this morning as speculators take profits following yesterday's upside. The persistence of unseasonably cold weather is supporting the market, with Europe drawing on storage since 03-Nov. - 13/11/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is neutral-bullish this morning but could be exposed to bearish pressure as OPEC cut its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth for fourth consecutive time amid weaker demand from China and India. - 13/11/2024
EU carbon prices are moving to the downside in morning trading, taking direction from gas markets despite a bullish fundamental picture. Weak wind output, cooler temperatures and an improving macroeconomic picture are supportive. - 13/11/2024
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing down in morning trading despite low wind generation persisting into tomorrow, with temperatures increasing marginally and limiting heating demand. - 13/11/2024
The UK gas system opened 12 mcm undersupplied this morning, reflecting signs of insufficient pipeline supply. A small outage at the Troll gas field is due to start tomorrow until Friday. - 13/11/2024
The UK has secured an additional LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) cargo for Nov-24, bringing the total count to 8. Near-curve contracts are mostly flat on yesterday's close amid uncertainty in weather forecasts. - 12//11/2023
Weather forecasts for this winter remain unclear, with some recent climate forecasts suggesting warmer temperatures, but the La Nina weather pattern still showing signs of developing and bringing colder weather. - 12//11/2023
UK and European gas futures reached yearly highs in yesterday's trading amid concerns over tightness into 2025 and a Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Downside could be limited today by the offensive. - 12//11/2023
Temperatures for November have mostly been revised up, but temperatures for December mostly revised down in the latest forecast. This could be supportive to Dec-24 but offers bearish signals to prompt contracts through Nov-24. - 12//11/2023
Prompt energy contracts are receiving mixed signals from weather fundamentals into tomorrow, with wind generation falling further but temperatures showing a slight recovery. - 12//11/2023
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened 11mcm/d long this morning, with Oseberg coming back online and there currently being no unplanned outages. This offers positive prospects for supply this week. - 11//11/2024
EU carbon prices are trending sideways despite the upside to gas, with the start of COP29 and a holiday across Europe impacting trading volumes. UK carbon is recovering from last week's downside. - 11//11/2024
COP29 has started today, with the potential for updates in climate policies and new energy deals providing some direction to later-dated contracts. An Azeri swaps deal could also be discussed behind closed doors. - 11//11/2024
UK gas futures are trending to the upside this morning, with support coming from cooler temperatures forecasts in the near term and recent storage withdrawals. Middle Eastern geopolitics also provide bullish signals. - 11//11/2024
The Brent Crude Benchmark is trading to the downside this morning, with the threat of supply disruptions from a US storm easing and weakness in China's stimulus plan likely to keep demand suppressed. - 11//11/2024
The UK continues to attract LNG cargoes with a further 2 secured for Nov-24 bringing the total to 7. Favourable US shipping conditions to Europe over Asia are boosting supply and limiting upside on near-curve contracts - 08/10/2024
A sharp rise in wind generation into Monday is offering some bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts. Limited power imports, slightly cooler temperatures and tighter gas supply are supportive and limiting downside. - 08/10/2024
Australian LNG facility, North West Shelf will be shutting down 3.4bcm of capacity in Q1-25, providing bullish signals to 2025+ contracts on tighter supply and increased demand for alternative LNG sources in Asia - 08/10/2024
UK gas futures are pointing up in morning trading. The initial bearish direction from a Trump presidency has since been reversed on heightened concerns over the Middle East and a European response to Trump's tariffs. - 08/10/2024
The Brent Crude Benchmark is trading down this morning as fears over hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico impacting US oil facilities has waned. The market continues to weigh the impact of a Trump administration - 08/10/2024
Temperatures have been revised down for the second half on Nov-24, offering bullish signals to near-curve energy contracts on increased household heating demand and prospects of larger storage downdraws. - 07/11/2024
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, erasing some of yesterdays bearish sentiment. Concerns that Hurricane Rafael could impact US oil and LNG facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and geopolitics are offering support. - 07/11/2024
UK domestic production has recovered and Norwegian flows to the UK have edged up, limiting upside to day-ahead gas contracts, though cooler temperatures are offering bullish signals. - 07/11/2024
The EU and UK carbon benchmark are trading up this morning on weak renewable output in the UK and Europe. EU carbon is also receiving support from the direction of gas markets. - 07/11/2024
The UK has lost one of it's LNG cargoes for Nov-24 bringing the total down to 5, with LNG imports down 72% year-on-year providing bullish pressure to 2025+ on tighter supply balance. - 07/11/2024
An uptick in wind generation and warmer temperatures into tomorrow are reducing gas-for-power and heating demand, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts. - 06/11/2024
UK gas futures are trading down this morning, retracing yesterday afternoons gains. An increasingly likely Trump presidency and Republican congress improves US LNG and crude oil export prospects. - 06/11/2024
ICIS have reported that gas demand in Europe and the UK could increase by 11% year-on-year in Nov-24, limiting downside along the curve on prospects of increased storage withdrawals to meet demand. - 06/11/2024
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Nov-24, bringing the total to 6, offering bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts on improving supply fundamentals. - 06/11/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark has seen losses this morning on projections that Trump has won the US presidential election. His policies could pressure the Chinese economy, further weakening demand. - 06/11/2024
A combination of weak renewable output and restricted power imports from France are providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices on increased gas-for-power demand. - 05/11/2024
Unplanned outages to UK domestic gas production are offering support to day-ahead gas contracts on tighter supply, with insufficient pipeline supply signalled by the UK gas system opening up undersupplied. - 05/11/2024
Warmer temperatures across the UK and Europe are depressing gas-for-heating demand, minimising storage downdraws ahead of the onset on the winter heating season and limiting upside to the near curve. - 05/11/2024
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning as the market awaits news from the US election. Additionally, Middle Eastern tensions continues to provide support as markets watch for Iran’s response to Israeli attacks. - 05/11/2024
Global LNG supply dynamics have loosened, easing pressure on the near-curve, with the return of US facilities Freeport and Sabine Pass from unplanned outages, as well as increased shipments from Malaysia's Bintulu. - 05/11/2024
Persistently low wind generation throughout the week is providing bullish pressure to prompt baseload contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. Gains in the UK carbon are also supportive. - 04/11/2024
UK gas futures have moved to the upside this morning retracing Friday's losses, with news surrounding a European gas deal with Azerbaijan to replace Russian gas flows appearing to be inaccurate. - 04/11/2024
Warmer Asian temperatures are reducing competition for spot LNG cargoes, with the UK securing a fifth for Nov-24. The fall in UK gas prices last week could limit any further purchases though. - 04/11/2024
The EU carbon benchmark is mirroring gains seen in the gas market, with low wind output across Western and Central Europe also providing support to prices on increased gas-for-power demand. - 04/11/2024
The Brent Crude Benchmark has seen gains this morning with OPEC+ extending output cuts into January. The market also remains braced for US election results. - 04/11/2024
UK gas futures are moving to the downside this morning on an announcement by European Commission officials that European buyers are close to finalising a deal with Azerbaijan to maintain flows through Ukraine. - 01/11/2024
Wind generation and temperatures are forecast to fall over the weekend, supporting day-ahead energy contracts on increased gas-fired and heating demand. - 01/11/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is pointing up this morning following reports that Iran was preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq. This is limiting downside to UK gas futures as well. - 01/11/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is climbing in morning trading amid a continuation of weak low-carbon energy generation. EU carbon is moving down in line with gas markets. - 01/11/2024
The UK has secured another additional cargo for the month of Nov-24, bringing the total count to 4. This boost in supply is offering some bearish pressure on near-curve energy contracts. - 01/11/2024
UK gas futures have opened neutral-bearish this morning, continuing to the downwards trend seen this week. Easing geopolitical concerns and more favourable temperature forecasts are offering bearish signals. - 31/10/2024
The prompt UK baseload is pointing down this morning despite lower wind generation into tomorrow, with the early return of the Torness 1 nuclear reactor (595MW) and improved gas supply prospects. - 31/10/2024
The day-ahead gas contract is neutral-bearish this morning despite lower temperatures into tomorrow. Improve supply prospects from the North Sea and Norway are contributing to the downside. - 31/10/2024
The UK is scheduled to receive 2 LNG cargoes in November. Imports in Europe also remain subdued relative to 2023 and the fall in gas prices this week is offering little incentive for further cargoes in the near term. - 31/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened 11mcm/d long this morning. Maintenance at gas fields is expected to end in coming days, boosting supply prospects and providing bearish signals to near curve gas. - 31/10/2024
UK gas futures are pointing down in morning trading, reversing the gains seen in yesterday's trading. A speech from Iran's Supreme Leader suggests they won't respond to Israel's most recent attacks. - 30/10/2024
Despite easing concerns in the Middle East, downside to UK energy futures is likely to continue being limited by LNG dynamics and concerns over reliance on storage this winter, - 30/10/2024
The prompt UK baseload contract is pointing sharply down in morning trading driven by a strong rise in wind generation into tomorrow. - 30/10/2024
The start date for the Torness 1 nuclear reactor (595MW) has been brought forward to tomorrow from 03-Nov, providing bearish signals to day-ahead baseload in coming days. - 30/10/2024
The benchmark EU carbon contract is pointing down in morning trading, tracking gas. The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up as a continuation of weak wind generation heightens gas-fired demand. - 30/10/2024
UK energy futures have opened bullish this morning after falling in yesterday's trading. Concerns over a potential retaliation from Iran and over the stability of European supply this winter are supportive. - 29/10/2024
Delivered volumes of LNG are up from a week earlier in Asia, and down in Europe, signalling a continuation of firm Asian LNG demand and supporting near curve energy contracts. - 29/10/2024
The UK carbon benchmark is pointing up in morning trading, continuing to recover from the downside seen late last week. Limited low-carbon power availability in the near term is the primary support. - 29/10/2024
Day-ahead gas is bullish this morning on cooler temperatures and falling wind generation. Prompt baseload is bearish despite the wind reduction as import availability offsets the bullish pressure. - 29/10/2024
Total Norwegian piped exports to the UK opened balanced this morning, with the Kollsness gas field coming back online and there currently being no unplanned outages. - 29/10/2024
Israeli attacks on Iranian missile and defence facilities have mitigated some concerns around a widening conflict in the Middle East and are eroding some of the risk premium to energy futures. - 28/10/2024
The UK have secured another cargo for Oct-24, now up to 5 cargoes, and 2 for the month of Nov-24. This offers some bearish pressure to near-curve contracts on signs of improving LNG supply. - 28/10/2024
The Brent crude benchmark is pointing sharply down this morning after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran’s oil and nuclear facilities, not disrupting energy supplies. - 28/10/2024
Temperatures in the UK and Northwest Europe have been revised up, from the last forecast, for November. This is easing concerns of an early start to storage withdrawals, offering downside to the near curve. - 28/10/2024
A sharp drop in wind generation into tomorrow is offering support to day-ahead energy prices, particularly power. This is somewhat mitigated by increasing temperatures and continued strong imports. - 28/10/2024
Prompt contracts are taking direction from weather fundamentals this morning, with baseload pointing down on increased wind into next week and gas up on falling temperatures. - 25/10/2024
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