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UK energy futures are continuing yesterday's bullish trajectory this morning. A strong revision down for temperatures into Feb-25, as well as concerns over European gas storage and weak wind output are the main drivers. - 30/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is neutral-bullish after rallying by around 20% since the start of the week. In combination with weak wind output concerns, this is providing bullish signals to UK baseload futures. - 30/01/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is pointing strongly up this morning as weaker wind output supports gas-fired generation, whilst unseasonable temperatures and gas market tightness maintain high gas-fired premiums. - 30/01/2025
Wind output has been revised down into the middle of Feb-25 for the UK and NWE, adding to concerns from a similar revision to temperatures and highlighting the ongoing risk from the La Nina weather phenomenon. - 30/01/2025
The UK is set to receive its final LNG cargo for Jan-25 tomorrow, bringing the total to 21, and has secured 10 cargoes for Feb-25 delivery. Despite this, tightness in European gas markets is limiting any downside. - 30/01/2025
UK carbon and baseload futures are making gains again this morning after a strong rally to carbon yesterday on news that the UK government is planning to link the UK scheme with the more expensive EU scheme. - 29/01/2025
UK gas futures are pointing up this morning as concerns over tightness in LNG markets and significant depletion to European storage offset any downside from improved prospects for Ukrainian gas transit. - 29/01/2025
Day-ahead contracts are bullish this morning on falling wind and temperatures into tomorrow. Prompt contracts could remain supported into next week as weather has been forecast slightly colder and less windy. - 29/01/2025
An unplanned outage has been announced at Norway's Asgard gas field impacting 10 mcm/d of capacity, lending support to UK gas futures. Bullish pressure is somewhat limited by the small size of the outage. - 29/01/2025
The EU have announced they will not attempt a full ban of Russian LNG in their most recent sanctions package. Any bearish signals are being mitigated by the potential impact of US sanctions and storage concerns. - 29/01/2025
UK gas futures declined yesterday as the EU continued gas talks with Ukraine, whilst Ukraine mentioned a potential deal with Azerbaijan. Markets are reversing the trend this morning as lower prices increase buying pressure. - 28/01/2025
The most recent weather forecasts are providing some bearish signals this morning, with temperatures and wind slightly improved for the front two weeks. However, the market response has so far been minimal. - 28/01/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is pointing up this morning on declining temperatures and a drop in Norwegian gas flows into tomorrow. Prompt baseload is bearish, driven by high wind output and stable interconnector flows. - 28/01/2025
The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is holding for the time being, but signs of breakdown are already being shown as Israel seeks to extend its troop withdrawal time and Israeli ministers threaten to leave the coalition. - 28/01/2025
UK carbon has rallied sharply this morning on the back of news that the UK government is eyeing a link to the EU scheme, supporting UK baseload. EU carbon was trading over £33 higher than the UK equivalent yesterday. - 28/01/2025
UK gas futures are pointing down in morning trading on news that Ukraine is prepared to transit Azeri natural gas to Europe. However, there remains questions about Azerbaijan's ability to increase exports, limiting downside. - 27/01/2025
The UK has secured 3 additional LNG cargoes for February 2025, bringing the total to 6. January imports have hit a one-year high, as the UK remains an attractive destination for cargoes, and a continuation of this may limit upside. - 27/01/2025
JERA, Japan's leading LNG buyer, aims to increase its LNG purchases from the US to diversify its supply and address rising demand. This could increased supply competition as Europe increasingly looks to the US for supplies. - 27/01/2025
Norwegian flows to the UK are up 7mcm/d and a number of facility outages are due to end tomorrow, offering downside to day-ahead gas contracts on signs of sufficient pipeline supply and offsetting bullish signals from lower wind. - 27/01/2025
UK near-curve and front season contracts have begun to retrace from last weeks highs, however weather fundamentals into February and geopolitics surrounding Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine are limiting further downside. - 27/01/2025
Potential sanctions on Russian LNG exports by US President Trump could disrupt European energy supply, offering bullish signals along the curve on increased uncertainty in the market. - 24/01/2025
Revised down wind and temperature forecasts into February are offering support to front month contracts on increased gas-for-power and heating demand and providing bullish pressure to gas futures amid ongoing storage concerns. - 24/01/2025
The 580MW Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactor is expected to return to operation today, offsetting the planned outage of the 580MW Heysham 1-1 reactor on 27th January. This will help stabilise UK nuclear capacity, keeping it at 72%. - 24/01/2025
Freeport LNG is on track to return from an unplanned outage, limiting some upside on signs of improving LNG supply conditions . However, ongoing cold weather in the region continues to pose a risk of further disruptions. - 24/01/2025
Extended Norwegian maintenance has reduced flows to the UK, leaving the system undersupplied this morning, signalling system tightness and supporting prompt gas contracts, particularly with net storage injections forecast. - 24/01/2025
A further increase in wind output and a rise in temperatures to above seasonal levels is providing downside to day-ahead baseload contracts on reduced gas-for-power and heating demand. - 23/01/2025
News of Germany's new subsidy mechanism for gas storage has caused gas prices along the curve to surge, raising concerns about market distortions, taxpayer costs and long-term financial and energy market stability. - 23/01/2025
Freeport LNG is expected to remain offline until power supply stabilises amid a rare winter storm, adding to concerns about storage levels and supporting near-curve gas prices on tighter global LNG supply conditions. - 23/01/2025
Despite US LNG supply constraints, the UK continues to attract LNG cargoes, with a further cargo secured for Jan-25, bringing the total up to 21. This is a 90% increase compared to Jan-24, helping to limit upside to the near-curve. - 23/01/2025
Summer-25 is currently trading at a premium over Winter-25, driven by rapidly declining storage levels which is fuelling summer buying pressure in order to replenish gas stocks and ensure supply security ahead of Winter-25. - 23/01/2025
A surge in wind generation is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts due to reduced gas-for-power demand. Meanwhile, the return of the Heysham 2-8 (615MW) nuclear reactor boosts UK nuclear output to 72%. - 22/01/2025
North-West European storage is 56% full, down 20% year-on-year, fuelling concerns that low stock levels by the end of Mar-25 could tighten Europe's gas balance for the remainder of 2025, supporting contracts along the curve. - 22/01/2025
UK gas futures continued their price rally yesterday afternoon, spurred by news that Freeport LNG has suspended flows due ongoing cold weather and an incoming storm in the region, heightening supply concerns. - 22/01/2025
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Feb-25, bringing the total to 3. That cargoes continue to be secured despite the supply constraints in the US is limiting upside to near-curve gas contracts. - 22/01/2025
Proposed EU sanctions on Russian LNG this year are providing support to gas futures on potential supply risks, particularly with global LNG markets already exhibiting some signs of tightness and concerns over new project delays. - 22/01/2025
A further decline in wind generation (to below 1GW) tomorrow, coupled with constrained UK nuclear output is providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. - 21/01/2025
The UK has secured 2 LNG cargoes for Feb-25 delivery, limiting upside to near-curve energy contracts as the UK continues to attract cargoes and enhances its ability to reinject into storage amid weak Asian demand. - 21/01/2025
Day-ahead gas contracts have risen to their highest levels since mid-October 2023 fuelled by unfavourable weather fundamentals and an undersupplied system indicating a tighter supply-demand balance. - 21/01/2025
UK gas futures rose in yesterday afternoon's trading and are continuing with their bullish trajectory, supported by IEA's suggestion of tight gas markets through 2025 and Trump's early policy decisions raising market uncertainty. - 21/01/2025
Norway's Hammerfest LNG has returned from an unplanned outage, but downside to energy futures is being limited by concerns of a storm hitting Louisiana and potentially restricting US LNG output. - 21/01/2025
Turkey has confirmed last week's attack on the Turkstream pipeline by Ukraine, despite Ukraine dismissing it as Russian propaganda. This is likely to offer support to prices along the curve amid heightened pipeline risk. - 20/01/2025
Donald Trump will be sworn in as US President today and his early policies such as pushing to end the Russia-Ukraine war, tariffs on China, and a potential EU trade war could have significant repercussions along the curve. - 20/01/2025
Weather fundamentals are offering support to day-ahead baseload contracts, with low wind generation and colder temperatures increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 20/01/2025
Norwegian flows to the UK have increased as Visund, Njord, and Troll return from maintenance limiting upside to day-ahead gas contracts from Hammerfest LNG remaining offline and Gullfaks maintenance extension. - 20/01/2025
At least six US LNG cargoes have been diverted from Asia to Europe, amid weaker Asian demand and higher European prices, providing bearish pressure to near-curve contracts as Europe continues to attract cargoes. - 20/01/2025
Downside from the Gaza ceasefire is being limited by the Yemeni Houthi's stating that if Israeli attacks in Gaza continue in the run up to the ceasefire, which has so far been the case, their own attacks will. - 17/01/2025
A sharp decline in wind output over the weekend is providing strong bullish signals to day-ahead UK baseload. Temperatures are flat into Monday after a slight drop over the weekend, limiting upside to prompt gas. - 17/01/2025
Yesterday's revisions to weather forecasts suggest warmer and windier conditions for the remainder of Jan- and Feb-25 contributed to the bearish direction to near-curve and seasonal gas futures in yesterday's trading. Markets are sideways this morning. - 17/01/2025
The UK has secured it's first cargo for Feb-25 delivery, continuing to add to the positive LNG supply picture for the UK and wider Europe. This contributed to the price drop in yesterday's trading. - 17/01/2025
The impact of the increased US sanctions package on Russia is being tested by a Russian cargo sitting off the coast of Spain. The potential reduction in Russian LNG imports is providing some support to UK gas futures. - 17/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing down in morning trading on improved wind output and marginally warmer temperatures into tomorrow. An unplanned outage at Heysham 2-8 (615MW) is limiting the downside. - 16/01/2025
Near curve gas contracts are moving to the downside in morning trading, with lessening geopolitical risk in the Middle East as a ceasefire arrangement is reached between Hamas and Israel. - 16/01/2025
Yesterday saw temperatures for the next week revised slightly down, though any bullish pressure from increased storage concerns has been mitigated by lessened geopolitical risk in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. - 16/01/2025
The UK has secured a 19th LNG cargo for Jan-25, a 73% increase on Jan-24, as weak demand in Asia sees purchasers in the east redirect cargoes to Europe. This is helping to offset some concerns of weak storage. - 16/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is bearish this morning. It started the week at £35/tCO2e but has been declining on weak demand, breaking lower than the previous auction value. - 16/01/2025
Colder temperature forecasts for late Jan-25 on Monday afternoon supported the price rally, but a revision yesterday afternoon showing milder temperatures than Monday's forecast and contributed to a drop in gas futures. - 15/01/2025
UK energy futures are pointing up in morning trading after a pullback yesterday afternoon. Weakened storage limits downside and leaves Europe more exposed to supply concerns. - 15/01/2025
Norway's Gassco have announced an unplanned outage at the Njord gas field, starting today and finishing tomorrow, impacting 5.3mcm/d of flows. This is providing some support to UK gas futures on risk to further outages. - 15/01/2025
Despite the cold weather impacting the US, particularly its Freeport LNG facility, the UK has secured a 18th cargo for Jan-25 delivery. This marks a 64% increase on Jan-24 levels and limits upside to UK gas futures. - 15/01/2025
Weather fundamentals are offering opposing signals this morning, with a drop in temperatures providing bullish pressure to prompt energy contracts, but a recovery in wind output offsetting this for day-ahead baseload. - 15/01/2025
Temperatures have recovered to around seasonal normal levels after the recent cold snap, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts. For prompt baseload, this is being offset by a decline in wind output. - 14/01/2025
UK gas futures are mostly neutral-bearish to bearish in morning trading, with the market retreating from high prices reached during yesterday's rally. Geopolitics and fundamentals had combined to drive prices up. - 14/01/2025
Temperature and wind forecasts for the UK and Germany in late Jan-25 have been revised downwards, though remain close to the previous forecast. This could lead to greater reliance on storage and support futures. - 14/01/2025
The new US sanctions package on Russian LNG facilities and vessels is providing some support to UK energy futures, but the exclusion of key facilities, Yamal and Sakhalin, limits the bullish pressure in Europe and Asia. - 14/01/2025
Outages at Norwegian gas facilities will peek on Thursday before a period of no planned maintenance through to late Feb. The scope of the outage at Visund, starting today, has been decreased from 6.5mcm to 3mcm - 14/01/2025
UK gas energy are pointing up in morning trading, with an attack by Ukraine on Russian Turkstream pipeline infrastructure provoking concerns of reduced Russian gas flows to Europe. - 13/01/2025
Concerns over UK and European storage are supporting UK gas futures, particularly with Centrica warning of dangerously low storage levels. This is somewhat offset by the government saying there is no need for concern. - 13/01/2025
The UK's gas supply picture is limiting upside to energy futures, with the Norwegian Kolsness facility returning from unplanned outage, warmer weather forecasts and more LNG cargoes being secured (up to 16 for Jan-25). - 13/01/2025
The Brent Crude benchmark is pointing up in morning trading, with additional sanctions on the Russian crude oil industry by the US stoking fears of a drop in global supply. - 13/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are pointing up this morning, with a sharp drop in wind generation, recovery to the UK carbon benchmark and outage at Heysham 2-7 (615MW) supporting prices despite rising temperatures. - 13/01/2025
The Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor (595MW) has gone offline on an unplanned outage, restricting domestic low-carbon power supply and offering support to day-ahead energy contracts through to 22-Jan. - 10/01/2025
Temperatures in the UK are forecast to begin recovering to seasonal normal levels over the weekend after this cold snap. Coupled with a recovery in wind generation, this is providing bearish signals to day-ahead contracts. - 10/01/2025
European storage has fallen to 68% amid this recent cold spell, but warmer weather forecasts for the UK and Europe in January could provide some bearish signals to closer-dated gas futures on limited further withdrawals. - 10/01/2025
The UK carbon benchmark is trading neutral-bullish this morning, though upside continues to be suppressed by oversupply. The first auction of the year took place on Wednesday and saw prices close below £33/tCO2e. - 10/01/2025
Near curve UK gas futures are bearish in morning trading, with the UK securing a 15th LNG cargo for Jan-25 and Europe also showing strong imports. However, further downside is limited by the need to outprice Asia. - 10/01/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts have pushed up this morning, with declining wind generation into tomorrow increasing gas-for-power demand. Support is also coming from colder temperatures increasing household heating demand. - 09/01/2025
An anticipated increase in European LNG import demand in 2025, driven by rapidly depleting storage, reduced Russian pipeline supply and rising industrial demand is continuing to provide bullish signals along the curve. - 09/01/2025
Norway have extended their outage at the Hammerfest LNG facility by 10 days until 19-Jan. Coupled with an unspecified outage at their Kollsnes facility, this is offering support to prompt and near curve gas contracts on tighter supply. - 09/01/2025
The UK have secured an additional 2 LNG cargoes for Jan-25, bringing the total to 14, limiting any further upside to near-curve gas contracts on signs of stable supply and enhanced capacity for storage injections. - 09/01/2025
Slovakia's Prime Minister confirms that Slovakia have secured gas supply from Russia despite the ending of the Ukrainian transit deal. Details of the deal remain unclear but it highlights Slovakia's efforts to ensure energy security. - 09/01/2025
European storage has been depleting at a rate not seen since 2018, when storage finished the winter at 36%, due to cold weather. This remains the primary supporting factor for UK energy futures. - 08/01/2025
A five-year deal has been struck between Austria's OMV to supply Germany's Uniper with gas from 2027, limiting upside to Summer-27+ contracts as Europe diversifies away from Russian gas to enhance energy security. - 08/01/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are neutral-bearish to bearish despite an outage at Norway's Kollsnes facility and an undersupplied system. A slight increase in wind generation tomorrow is expected to reduce gas-for-power demand. - 08/01/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning after rallying yesterday on storage concerns and fears of potential damage to UK and European subsea interconnectors by ships in Russia's shadow fleet. - 08/01/2025
US Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi 3 expansion on train-1 is six months ahead of schedule and is expected to be completed by the end of Q1-25, sending bearish signals along the curve on a boost in global LNG supply. - 08/01/2025
Unfavourable weather fundamentals, with plummeting wind generation and unseasonably low temperatures are offering support to prompt contracts on increased gas-for-power and household heating demand. - 07/01/2025
Central European gas flows have adjusted to the loss of Russia supply via Ukraine, with increased shipments from Germany and Italy compensating for the shortfall, providing bearish signals along the curve on improving supply conditions. - 07/01/2025
Larger than average storage depletions in the UK and Europe, which are down 35% and 17%, year-on-year are providing support to near-curve and seasonal gas contracts on increased buying pressure fuelled by injection demand. - 07/01/2025
Europe continues to be the premium LNG destination over Asia, despite current cold spells in the region. Germany's Wilhelmshaven terminal has cancelled its first-quarter shutdown due to strong interest and high utilisation demand. - 07/01/2025
UK energy futures are showing mixed price action this morning after yesterday's decline, on warmer temperature forecasts for the UK and NWE, as well as the announcement that Norway's Hammerfest LNG will return on 09-Jan. - 07/01/2025
Wind generation is falling into tomorrow, offering support to prompt baseload contracts on increased gas-for-power demand. Downside to the UK carbon benchmark is limiting some upside. - 06/01/2025
The UK has secured a 12th LNG cargo for Jan-25 despite the outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG, providing bearish pressure to near-curve gas contracts as the UK continues to attract LNG from the Americas and West Africa. - 06/01/2025
Europe continues to increase its regasification capacity with a new Italian 5bcm LNG FSRU due online in Q2-25. This could improve European imports prospects as it continues to diversify away from Russian gas. - 06/01/2025
The UK gas system opened up oversupplied this morning, providing downside to day-ahead gas contracts on sufficient pipeline supply. Colder temperatures increasing household heating demand are limiting further downside. - 06/01/2025
UK gas futures are largely bearish this morning, easing from recent highs as concerns over the loss of Russian flows wane. Increased LNG imports and milder temperatures into next week are also providing bearish signals. - 06/01/2025
A sharp rise in wind generation to above seasonal levels into Monday is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on reduced gas-for-power demand. Bullish signals from UK carbon are limiting further downside. - 03/01/2025
An unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG, reducing 18 mcm/d of supply, is tightening European supply and supporting prompt contracts as the region experiences higher demand from colder weather. - 03/01/2025
The UK gas system opened up under supplied this morning despite Norway prioritising and redirecting flows to the UK over the Continent. Tight supply and low temperatures are offsetting any bearish pressure from improved wind. - 03/01/2025
Ukraine received their first US LNG cargo via Greece this week as Russian gas flows halted. This signals improved supply flexibility and a move toward diversification away from Russian gas in the region. - 03/01/2025
Freezing weather forecasts in the US are raising concerns about production disruptions and reduced LNG output amid higher domestic demand for natural gas for heating. This could be supportive to the near curve. - 03/01/2025
Weather fundamental are offering support to prompt energy contracts, with a current cold snap in the UK and unseasonably low wind generation increasing gas-for-power and heating demand. - 02/01/2025
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